Go Ducks. WTD.

Nice article. Well written and realistic. I, for one, cannot believe Vegas has the line at 21 1/2. With a totally healthy defense, I still think that that is high. This game will be a foreshadowing (sorry MadDuck) … if Oregon really does take it to Stanford as Vegas thinks, then this team is truly destined for greatness and Chip Kelly’s unfinished business will be ever closer to accomplishment. An exciting, exhilarating but very sad thought too, as we will almost certainly see the end of an era in Eugene.

GDWTD.

Stanford yielded 14 points to a USC offense that couldn’t be stopped according to the experts. The same USC offense that recently shredded the Ducks. In years past, USC was able to gash the Card D, but this year was very different. Last season Stanford’s D was riddled with injuries, but this group is not only talented and experienced, but healthy. They’ve also upgraded the secondary at every position, in both talent and athleticism, as well as the added dimension of Usua Amanem at nickle. This Stanford D is considerably better, and faster than the previous two, and Kelly knows it.

Mariotta has played well, but against WSU, he showed he can be rattled. How will he react against the nation’s best defensive front (statistically, anyway) considering how much trouble Oregon had against similar fronts in the SEC? By the way, how’s that shoulder, Marcus?

If OU has some trouble scoring on the conference’s best scoring D, can their banged-up D hold up? Stanford’s ground game with Stepfan Taylor is far more potent than that of USC or Cal, yet the Ducks yielded 367 yards in their past 2 games, at a clip of 5 1/2 yards/carry. (Incidentally, Stanford allowed just 24 yards rushing combined against those same teams) Hogan will be making his first road start, but he has been a huge catalyst for the Stanford O, especially extending broken plays. Can OU’s D handle that for 60 minutes?

Oregon is clearly one of the best football programs in the nation, and beating them at home is a truly tough task, but the smart money is on the Cardinal +21. This game will be closer than the experts think, and a sloppy game by the Ducks could well spell doom for their national title dreams. Thanks to improved speed on D, and the injury issues in Oregon, this is not the match-up nightmare it has been for the Card. Duck fans can be cocky because their team has earned it, but OU’s players know this game will no duck walk.

1: Stanford’s D lacks the speed to defend the edge in the running game, and the speed to defend the field vertically in the passing game.

2: Stanford’s D is a one trick pony: Blitz. Mariota has shown an ability to attack the blitz, escaping pressure and throwing the ball away when necessary. Combine this with Stanford’s weak secondary and Oregon’s superb O-line, and Mariota, Huff, Lyerla, Thomas, and co. will just shred these guys for another 6 TD’s(or more).

3: Stanford’s D has looked impressive against a bunch of mediocre(or worse) teams and has shown itself to be vulnerable against even marginally good teams(OSU is having a pretty good season, but doesn’t even come close to Oregon in terms of offensive firepower). If not for an unforced fumble by Vaz, OSU wins that game. Oregon will expose this defense and their inflated stats for what they really are: a slightly better than average unit.

4: Even if Stanford has some success running the ball, they will have to keep pace with the Oregon offense. Enter the freshman QB making his first road start in a night game at Autzen Stadium against the LEGIT number one team in the country. Eventually this Hoagie kid will have to throw the ball to keep them in the game and UO’s linebackers and DB’s will eat his lunch. 4 yard throws to the tight end(their only good receiver) will not get the job done.

5: Stanford will have to score 50+ points to win this game and they just aren’t built to do that. Final score: Oregon 56, Stanford 20. Better luck next year!

But even then, I don’t see Stanford’s defense as being much better than USCs. They gave up 17 points to San Jose, 48 to Arizona, and 23 to Oregon State, the latter two being at home. Now they’re playing an offense that is much better than any of those teams – on the road. Does anyone think Oregon doesn’t score at least 50 on this vaunted defense? And if that’s true, does Miles Bennett-Smith really believe Stanford’s offense will score over 50? This same offense that put up 20 against San Jose, 13 against Washington and 24 at home to Washington State?

I’m not ragging on the Cardinal. I’m just pointing out that Miles may be living in fantasy land.

Stanford has a very good offense that scores after many plays. But even against a banged up Duck defense they will have to score on the ground and use a lot of plays to do so. Even if they fumble infrequently, they will still turn the ball over more per point scored than the Ducks because it takes so many more plays for them to score, and will have so many more opportunities to cough it up. Every game has the same number of possessions for each team. But If we don’t count a possession with a turnover as a possession, the Ducks will have the ball and opportunities to score more often than Stanford (or anybody else for that matter.) And with their low turnover per point scored ratio they will run away with the game.

Unless Stanford plays turnover free football, or the Ducks have fumble-itis, there is no way Stanford, or probably anyone, can hang with the Ducks. So hang onto the ball on Saturday, Duckies.