With the sun invading the typically gloomy, rain-soaked skies of Eugene, Ore. in recent days, the Arizona State Sun Devils will be following suit. The current Pac-12 leader comes to town this weekend to face off against No. 23 Oregon baseball in the Ducks’ most crucial series of the year thus far. This is the kind of series that can make or break a season; it’s the kind of series that can separate a good team from a great one.
And it all kicks off Friday evening at PK Park.
Under the leadership of former Major League Baseball player Willie Bloomquist, the Sun Devils have bounced back from a mediocre season last year, when they came in just eighth place in the Pac-12. The way things currently stand, Arizona State leads the Pac-12 and is ranked No. 12 in the country (per Baseball America). The Ducks, meanwhile, are in third place and fall in at No. 20.
This weekend could change everything…or it could dash Oregon’s hopes of winning the Pac-12 entirely. At 11-7 in conference play, the Ducks sit 2.5 games behind the Sun Devils, who own a 13-4 record. The teams have nearly identical overall records, with Oregon at 28-12 and Arizona State at 28-13.
The first question that comes to mind when looking at the Sun Devils is: What changed since last year? They had a strong offense last season, posting a team OPS of .842. Pitching was their downfall, with an ugly 6.76 ERA as a staff. Kyle Luckham was their best starter, with a 4.36 ERA. The next-best, among qualified pitchers? Adam Tulloch with an 8.42 ERA.
To make matters seemingly worse, Luckham got drafted by the Washington Nationals and is no longer on the team. So why have these Sun Devils been so much better?
They’ve still been an offense-heavy team. But their offense has risen to an even higher level, and their pitching, while still mediocre, has been less terrible than last year. That team OPS has climbed to .906 — that’s .027 better than Oregon. On the pitching side, junior transfers Ross Dunn and Khristian Curtis have anchored their rotation, though they’ve posted uninspiring ERAs of 4.40 and 5.59, respectively. Altogether, the team owns a staff-wide 5.58 ERA. That’s not good, but it won’t stain the eyes quite as harshly as 6.76.
In many respects, Arizona State looks to be similar to Oregon. High levels of offense and suspect pitching is the game plan that’s defined the Ducks for the last couple seasons now. But, despite the records and rankings, Oregon should still have an advantage, on paper — if for no other reason than “Jace the Ace” Stoffal.
Stoffal has emerged as not just the ace of Oregon, but one of the aces of the Pac-12. His 3.02 ERA is the third-best among qualified pitchers in the conference, and only rose above 3.00 after a shaky seventh inning in an otherwise good showing last Friday against Cal. Nobody could possibly forget his performance the previous week against No. 9 Stanford, where he held a high-powered offense to three hits in a complete game shutout.
Arizona State simply doesn’t have anyone like Stoffal. Oregon’s Saturday starter, Logan Mercado, might be more on par with the Sun Devils’ pitchers’ talent level, but even he showed he had a little flash in the tank — he pitched a complete game against Stanford as well, allowing just one run. It’s been a year of ups and downs for Mercado, but he was Oregon’s best relief pitcher last year and has shown he can be effective in a starting role as well.
Arizona State will roll out a rotation of Jonah Giblin (5.09 ERA), Curtis and Dunn, in that order. Oregon will counter with Stoffal and Mercado, as expected, while Sunday is still listed as TBA. The most likely option is Matthew Grabmann, who started last Sunday and pitched four good innings against Cal. The biggest thing that would prevent Grabmann from starting is if Stoffal or Mercado has a disastrous outing and the Ducks desperately need him in long relief. In that case, Leo Uelmen would probably be the fallback option.
Oregon also has an advantage in the bullpen, with Josh Mollerus being one of the best closers in the country. Arizona State doesn’t have a lockdown closer. Altogether, Oregon’s 4.25 team ERA is much better than the Sun Devils’.
In any case, this series should be all — or at least mostly — about offense. It will be interesting to see if Stoffal can shut this potent Arizona State lineup down at home the way he did with Stanford. Ryan Campos and Luke Keaschall are having insane campaigns, each with an OPS above 1.100. Oregon’s only hitter with an OPS above 1.100 — or even 1.000, for that matter — is Sabin Ceballos at 1.109.
Notably, all 11 D1Baseball staff members predicted that Oregon will win this series. That’s despite Arizona State being ahead of Oregon in both record and ranking — including D1Baseball’s own list. One would have to think this is because of Oregon’s relative advantage in pitching, with both teams having similarly strong offenses. Perhaps they don’t buy the success the Sun Devils have had, not fully believing their jump from last year to this year. But that would seem to contradict where they placed Arizona State in the rankings.
Come out to 80-degree PK Park this weekend for what should be an intense showdown between two of the best college baseball teams in the country. A sweep would put the Ducks a half-game ahead of the Sun Devils, and possibly propel them to first place in the Pac-12. They are yet to win the conference in the modern era of the program, topping out at second-place finishes in 2013 and 2021.
First pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. Friday. Saturday’s game starts at 3 p.m. — two hours after the football spring game begins.
