The Oregon Ducks (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12) will take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-7, 2-5 Pac-12) in the second-to-last game of the season. The Ducks are on a four-game winning streak and sit solidly in second place in the Pac-12 standings. This means that Oregon controls its own destiny in making it to the Pac-12 Championship game. However, many Pac-12 teams have had their seasons ruined by overlooking the Sun Devils, and the Ducks have to be careful not to let Arizona State play spoiler again this year, as the last time Oregon played in Tempe was in 2019 when the Ducks were 9-1 and ranked No. 6. Oregon lost that game 31-28.
For the Ducks, this matchup serves as a precursor to the bigger matchup against Oregon State the week after, but Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has proven this season that he does not look past teams that would seem to be easy games. Oregon has a total point differential of +292 on the season, the best mark in the Pac-12 by over one hundred points. This differential comes from allowing the least points in the Pac-12, and also scoring the second most points, behind only the USC Trojans. The Ducks have been able to take care of business against the lower teams in the division and have looked dominant in many of those wins.
The Oregon offense has also been dominant against the Pac-12 this season, with its lowest scoring performance being 33 points coming in its lone loss against the Washington Huskies. Oregon has matched up against four of the current bottom five teams in the Pac-12 standings, with Arizona State being the only one Oregon has not already played. In those games, Oregon has taken care of business, outscoring Cal, Colorado, Washington State and Stanford by a combined 185-55. The Ducks have proven time and time again this season that they will not look past a team they are heavily favored against.
Arizona State just beat a UCLA team that was once ranked for multiple weeks this season. A quality win heading into a game against a College Football Playoff hopeful could be exactly what the Sun Devils need in order to pull off a massive upset. Taking their foot off the gas in this game could lead to a much closer game than the Ducks are anticipating.
Arizona State’s offense has struggled this year, having scored the least in the Pac-12. The Oregon defense, on the other hand, has excelled at holding teams below their typical scoring performances, including holding high-powered Colorado and Utah offenses to just six points each, and will look to do the same against a Sun Devil attack that ranks last in the Pac-12 in total points.
The Ducks had three sacks against USC, bringing their total for the year up to 31, which puts them tied for tenth in the FBS. The Arizona State offensive line has allowed 28 sacks so far this season, which puts them in the bottom third in sacks allowed in the FBS for the year. The Oregon defensive line will be essential to hold Arizona State to another low scoring performance.
Bo Nix has been incredible so far this season and is making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy. Nix put up a season-high 412 passing yards against USC, and added four passing touchdowns. Nix will look to add to those numbers against the Sun Devils, who have fielded a somewhat unimpressive defense so far this season.
The game is scheduled for 1 p.m. PST, which is better than playing in Tempe in a Pac-12 After Dark showdown. Weird things happen during Pac-12 After Dark, and weird things happen playing away games at Arizona State, most relevant for the Ducks being the 2019 upset loss. Those two things together have led to some unpredictable outcomes in the past, a fate Oregon has avoided for this matchup. However, Arizona’s middle-of-the-day heat could prove to be tough conditions for a football game.
This game is likely not one that many Duck fans had circled on their calendar as a game to watch. Looking past Arizona State could cost the Ducks; however, this game could serve as a launching pad for the Ducks as they move into a very tough final game against Oregon State.
