In 2014, Shaun Chase hit a home run every 10.36 at-bats, the second best ratio in the NCAA. His 14 home runs tied an Oregon single-season record, led the Pac-12 and ranked seventh nationally.
Chase was one of two Ducks named Louisville Slugger preseason second-team All-American, but has faced his share of struggles at the plate in 2015. Through the first fifteen games of 2015, he’s hitting just .218 from the clean-up position.
“I lost it at the beginning for the first ten, eleven games or so, but I’m starting to find my way back to being a consistent hitter and just playing my game,” Chase said. “I have a few mechanical things that went wrong, but it’s all mentality and toughness.”
Head coach George Horton loves having Chase’s batting fourth because at that position he has the best chance of coming to the plate with runners on base; Matt Eureste (.317), Austin Grebeck (.286) and Mitchell Tolman (.353), who hit 1-2-3, own three of the four best batting averages on the team.
Chase’s success as a hitter, however, has been largely dependent on his long balls, which is typically not a sustainable model in baseball. He finished third on the team in batting average in 2014 (.283), but more impressive was the extent to which he dominated the team in slugging percentage, a measure of total bases per at-bat.

Chase also strikes out at a high rate, an infamous characteristic for power hitters. Of players on the team with at least 25 at-bats this season, Chase has the highest ratio of strikeouts per plate appearance.

Taking a look at Shaun Chase’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) indicates Chase isn’t making quality contact with the ball thus far in 2015. BABIP measures batting average after factoring out strikeouts and home runs, because both contribute to batting average but in neither event is the ball “in the field of play.” For this reason, if Player A hits .250 with a BABIP of .310 over time, and Player B hits .270 with a BABIP of .290, Player A is probably making better contact than Player B on average despite his traditional batting average being lower.
Of players with at least 25 at-bats in 2015, Chase has the lowest BABIP on the team (.231). Slumps are a part of the game for any player, but the troubling aspect is the small difference between his batting average and BABIP. When the difference is large, a hitter’s batting average doesn’t accurately reflect how well he is hitting the ball, due to victimization by great defensive plays, “attaball” (hitting the ball hard but directly at defensive players) or otherwise having bad luck.
Out of players with at least 10 at-bats in 2015, the difference between Chase’s batting average and BABIP is the smallest on the team. His low batting average, therefore, is likely better explained by poor contact, such as hitting too many fly balls and pop-ups (minus the home runs), than misfortune.

Last season, Chase took the league by storm offensively. He’s already taken three pitchers deep in 2015, including his two-run blast in the eighth on Sunday that propelled Oregon past St. John’s 8-6.
“When it left his bat, it looked like just a fly ball,” Horton said. “That shows you how strong he is; I guess that explains why we’ve stayed with him.”
The threat Chase poses to defenses in every plate appearance makes him irreplaceable in the lineup, but his effectiveness will diminish if he does not continue to hit at a high rate.
One possible way to boost Chase’s efficiency would be to move him down in the batting order. This would allow him to see more fastballs and better overall pitches to hit from opposing pitchers. Based on his performance in each of slots three through eight in 2014, the sixth position in the batting order seems like a great fit.

Follow Kenny Jacoby on Twitter @kennyjacoby

Gallery • 7 Photos

Taylor Wilder

Oregon catcher Shaun Chase (16) hits his second grand slam of the night during the bottom of the eighth inning. The Oregon Ducks hosted the Pacific Tigers at PK Park in Eugene, Ore. on May 13, 2014. (Taylor Wilder/Emerald)