At 18-8 with a Pac-12 record of 8-5, Oregon has turned out to be a good-not-great team in a bad conference — putting it in a bit of a predicament when determining the team’s tournament resume.
Oregon has gone 0-2 versus the RPI top 25 and 2-5 against the top 50, with victories over No. 40 UCLA and No. 45 Illinois. Some analysts concluded that Oregon’s lack of strong non-conference wins could be the key factor to the Ducks not receiving an at large bid.
After No. 7 Wisconsin beat Illinois on Sunday, the Ducks have zero non-conference wins over potential tournament teams.
Inside the Pac-12, UCLA is the only team Oregon has beaten that has a chance to improve its RPI standing – should the Bruins beat No. 6 Arizona in Tucson.
The lone factor Oregon has is the fact that it still controls its destiny.

(Data via TeamRankings)
After simulating the entire season countless times, TeamRankings determines that the probability of a team receiving an NCAA Tournament bid drastically increases after picking up its 21st and 22nd wins. To get into that threshold, Oregon must go at least 3-2 over its final five games.
College basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy gives Oregon the following odds for its remaining schedule:

(Data via KenPom)
The Ducks are expected to handle their business against Colorado at home, suffer a double digit loss to Utah, win against Cal and then lose decisively to Stanford and Oregon State.
With that data, we can calculate the likelihood of each of Oregon’s possible records.
(Data via KenPom)
Pomeroy believes Oregon’s final record will most likely be 20-11, just shy of TeamRanking’s target win mark of 22. On the other hand, beating No. 9 Utah or No. 41 Stanford would immediately flip the odds on the graph, as most of the unfavorable percentages come from those two games.
Outside of the Colorado game, there isn’t a favorable game for Oregon left. Utah is a very different team away from home, but still boasts a significant edge in efficiency metrics. Cal has been playing its best basketball of the season as of late, Stanford is a tough matchup for any Pac-12 team and Oregon State has been virtually unbeatable in Corvallis this season.
Oregon’s chances of making the NCAA tournament aren’t looking very bright.
TeamRankings currently gives Oregon a 20.1 percent chance at making the tournament, with an 18.8 percent chance to receive an at large bid and put 4.2 of those percentage points on Oregon receiving a No. 11 seed from the committee.
If the Ducks end on the wrong side of the bubble on Selection Sunday, they’ll be in the prime position to claim a high seeding from the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
DRatings.com projected that Oregon will receive a No. 1 seed in that tournament, giving the Ducks a shot at hosting a few more games at Matthew Knight Arena and extending the official contact time for coaches and players before the offseason. Fellow Pac-12 members Arizona State, Colorado, Washington and Oregon State are expected to receive NIT bids as well.
Even if the NCAA Tournament wasn’t part of this team’s destiny, Oregon head coach Dana Altman proved that if he gets enough time, he’ll make a winning team out of just about anything.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter