The Oregon Ducks (7-3, 5-2 Pac-12) left the California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-4 Pac-12) with a sour taste in their mouths two weeks ago, after thrashing them 44-28 at home for their seventh consecutive match-up victory. The loss was Cal’s fourth straight, following its 5-0 start to the season.
Now, in Oregon’s hunt for an improbable berth in the Pac-12 title game, the Golden Bears could be the Ducks’ best friends. If Cal manages to pull off a major upset against the No. 15 Stanford Cardinal (8-2, 7-1 Pac-12) in the Big Game on Saturday, Nov. 21 at 7:30 p.m., Oregon will be in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 North.
That is, however, if the Ducks manage to beat the No. 22 USC Trojans (7-3, 5-2 Pac-12) at Autzen Stadium earlier that day.
Both Oregon and USC, respectively ranked No. 7 and No. 8 in the preseason AP Top 25, are riding four-game winning streaks entering Saturday’s 12:30 p.m. showdown in Eugene.
Oregon sat at 3-3 following a heartbreaking loss to Washington State at home on Oct. 10 that left fans wondering whether the team would even be bowl-eligible by the season’s end. But with a healthy Vernon Adams Jr. back behind center, the Ducks proved their legitimacy with a gritty 38-36 road win over No. 7 Stanford last Saturday.
USC’s season looked to be toast after former head coach Steve Sarkisian was fired and a subsequent 41-31 loss to Notre Dame left the Trojans with a 3-3 record. But just like Oregon, USC surged back with four straight wins, highlighted by a 42-24 upset against No. 3 Utah on Oct. 24.
With Stanford and Oregon in contention for the Pac-12 North title, and USC, Utah (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) and UCLA (7-3, 4-3 Pac-12) fighting for the South division crown, the race to the conference championship game is set up for a photo-finish. In reality, though, only the South is a true toss-up. As of Tuesday, Stanford is a heavy 11-point favorite to beat Cal in Berkeley, and thus, win the North.
Oregon needs to beat USC and Oregon State at home, as well as Cal to beat Stanford in order to win an intradivision tiebreaker and claim the North title.
The Pac-12 South title is completely up for grabs. USC controls its own destiny; The Trojans win the division with wins in their final two games against Oregon on the road and UCLA at home. UCLA also controls its own destiny, but its path is more daunting; it must win its final two games on the road against Utah and USC. Utah needs to win out at home against UCLA and Colorado, and USC to lose once in order to reclaim the South lead.
We’ll know a lot more about each team’s chances after the Big Game on Saturday night. For now, the name of the game for all five teams is the same: just win, baby.
Follow Kenny Jacoby on Twitter @KennyJacoby