The Four Factors:
• Field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
After getting thumped by Arizona, Oregon will face an entirely different challenge against Arizona State on Friday.
The Sun Devils (11-10, 3-5) have an offense based on the perimeter, but ASU still rebounds well and draws fouls at a decent rate. ASU’s defense gives up its fair share of baskets, ranking No. 11 in the Pac-12 in shooting percentage against, but keeps its opponents off the boards very well and causes plenty of turnovers.
Despite Arizona State’s strength on the defensive boards, Oregon (14-7, 4-4) matches up well with the Sun Devils.
Oregon claimed advantage in expected field goal percentage in nearly every game this season, but because the statistic weighs three-pointers more than two-pointers, Arizona State’s strong perimeter game gives it a slight advantage over the Ducks in that category. The Sun Devils also have a major advantage in free throw rate, while Oregon has an edge on the offensive glass and in turnover percentage.
In their last meeting, Oregon held Arizona State to 40 percent shooting, mostly due to the Sun Devils going 3-17 from three point range. If Oregon can shift back to the offensive prowess it showed against the LA schools last week, most of the burden in this contest will fall on Oregon’s defense.
The defensive statistics are also fairly even. Oregon has better field goal percentages against and free throw rates, but Arizona State rebounds more efficiently on defense and causes more turnovers.
The Sun Devils rank No. 11 in the Pac-12 in shooting percentage against, but No. 2 in turnovers forced and No. 5 in points per game at 65.4 points allowed. ASU’s impressive rebound rate represents a reason for concern on Oregon’s part. In each of their conference losses, the Ducks have been significantly out-rebounded on both ends of the court.
Arizona State out-rebounded Oregon State 28-20 and shot 15 more free throws (23-8,) en route to an easy 73-55 win over the Beavers on Wednesday.
If the Ducks’ offense throws away opportunities like it did in Tucson, Arizona State has the template that will give Oregon trouble. If Arizona State is hitting its outside shots and Oregon fails to take care of the ball, the Ducks might be in for a tough night in Tempe.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter
Four Factors: Oregon men’s basketball at Arizona State
Josh Schlichter
January 28, 2015
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