Following its impressive sweep of USC and UCLA, the Oregon men’s basketball team is in search of its first quality win of the season against No. 6 Arizona in Tucson.
The Wednesday night game represents more than just another measuring stick. It is one of the Ducks’ few chances to pick up a quality win and improve their chances at participating in the NCAA tournament.
Last time, Arizona had no problem dispatching an unorganized and undisciplined Oregon team in Eugene. The Wildcats dominated the glass, limited their turnovers, shot almost 50 percent from the field and earned plenty of free throws in the 80-62 win.
On defense, the Wildcats held the Ducks well below their season average in field goal percentage.
It was a textbook win for a physical, defense-oriented Arizona team.
If the Ducks want to reverse their fortune against the Wildcats, they’ll have to utilize several strengths in key statistical areas to pull off an upset.
Those strengths can be identified through a handful of key statistics called the Four Factors:
• Field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
The first chart describes the differences between Oregon’s and Arizona’s offenses. Both are relatively effective. Oregon has one of the highest expected field goal percentages in the country at 51.8 percent, but Arizona’s strong interior offense puts them even higher on the list at 54 percent.
Both teams have low turnover rates.
Oregon owns a slight edge in rebound percentage while Arizona is one of the best teams in the country at drawing fouls. The first time Arizona and Oregon met on the hardwood this season, the Wildcats scored 24 points on free throws alone. Expect that to be a telling sign of Oregon’s success on Wednesday night.
Oregon can exploit its high rebound rate, a product of the Ducks’ aggressive scoring forwards. The Ducks will need a shooting performance similar to the one they employed against UCLA on Saturday. But if their shots are not falling, Jordan Bell, Dillon Brooks, Michael Chandler and maybe Roman Sorkin should crash the boards and earn second-chance points. That won’t be easy against the stifling Arizona front court.
Arizona’s defense is devastating because of its rebounding. Arizona collects 77 percent of its opponent’s missed shots. The Wildcats may not lead the conference in total rebounds, but they do lead the Pac-12 in rebounds against, meaning Arizona keeps teams off the offensive boards extremely well (as shown by the chart above).
Arizona also forces a decent number of turnovers. The team leads the conference and the Wildcats claim one of the nation’s best defensive turnover rates — they’re in the top 50.
Oregon’s two slight advantages come in expected field goal percentage against and free throw rate. The Ducks need to prevent easy baskets. If Bell can stay out of foul trouble, Oregon’s guards can pressure Arizona point guard T.J. McConnell and funnel ball handlers towards Bell in the paint.
The Ducks have a tough task ahead of them. Arizona’s rebounding and efficiency on offense will likely be too much to overcome unless the Ducks continue their hot shooting streak.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter
Four Factors: Oregon men’s basketball at Arizona (charts)
Josh Schlichter
January 26, 2015
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