Pac-12 basketball has been out of the college basketball penthouse for a while.
With three teams in the mock NCAA tournament bracket, ESPN’s bracketology currently has the Pac-12 as the most underrepresented major conference in the country.
Perennial powerhouse conferences, like the Big East and ACC, are predicted to have nearly half of their members represented in March. On the other hand, the Pac-12 might be lucky to have more than two teams participating when the bracket is finalized.
No. 7 Arizona and No. 12 Utah are the two teams that look to have locked down a bid, while Stanford represents the only Pac-12 team not in the top 25 to make it onto the latest bracket prediction.
ESPN and CBS currently project Arizona to receive a No. 2 seed, while ESPN gave Utah a No. 3 seed and CBS picked the Utes as a No. 4 seed. Both outlets placed Stanford as a No. 8 seed.
One of the most reliable ranking systems used by the selection committee is the Ratings Percentage Index – which weighs strength of schedule, conference strength, and out of conference schedules when evaluating teams.
Currently, the teams that were selected to be the “last teams in,” have an average ranking of 51 in the RPI. The “first teams out,” have an average ranking of 49. The slight disparity between the two signals that the selection committee favors teams with lesser records in major conferences.
Oregon’s case for an at-large bid is pretty far-fetched.
The Ducks are ranked No. 91, have no victories over the top 50 teams and played one of the nation’s worst out of conference schedules according to the RPI.
For Oregon to have a shot, it would need to reverse its course against its competition. Other than Arizona and Utah, the only two Pac-12 teams in the RPI’s top 50 are Stanford and Washington, which have RPI rankings of No. 25 and No. 48.
At this point, Oregon would have to pick up a win against either Arizona or Utah, sweep the remaining Pac-12 teams in the RPI top 50 and avoid bad losses to teams like USC and Arizona State from here on out.
This weekend, Oregon must take care of business against the Trojans, but if it has serious aspirations to make a tournament run, beating RPI ranked No. 65 UCLA would go a long way.
While the Ducks are on the outside looking in at an NCAA tournament bid, an NIT or CBI postseason tournament bid could go a long way toward advancing the development of Oregon’s younger players.
Either way, if Oregon wants to win a game in any tournament, the team has to start improving its all-around play as soon as possible.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter
GameDay: The Pac-12, Oregon men’s basketball and bracketology
Josh Schlichter
January 21, 2015
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