On Thursday, Jan. 15, the nominations for the 87th Annual Academy Awards will be announced. You can find part one of my predictions (which cover the directing and supporting acting categories) here.
Best Actor
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) – Redmayne’s accomplishments in The Theory of Everything are nothing short of stunning. The physical transformation from a young scientist to the figure of Stephen Hawking we know today is told beautifully. In the film’s emotional climax, he’s asked to portray Hawking with limited access to facial muscles. It’s tremendous and nearly impossible to beat.
Michael Keaton (Birdman) – Birdman is a non-stop exploration of fame, human expression and the delicate balance of sanity with Keaton rarely absent from the proceedings. He’s the backbone of a triumphant film, the meat of one of this year’s Best Picture frontrunners.
David Oyelowo (Selma) – Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. has long been seen as an icon. Less of a human being, and more as a set of ideals – a mythic figure to which we compare modern voices. Oyelowo changes that. He brings depth, humanity and flaws to a portrayal that does so much justice to our collective memory.
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) – Cumberbatch has the highest star power of any other likely contender in this field, and a performance that hits all the Academy pleasure centers (British biopic? Socially conscious? Tragic ending? Yep, yep and yep). Plus a consistent string of nominations at most precursor awards ceremonies – Cumberbatch can expect a spot.
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) – The fifth spot in this category is hard to call, with a packed lineup of performances that could easily win in another year. But Jake Gyllenhaal has the momentum at the moment, with a transformative role that keeps your eyes glued to the screen.
Won’t Be Acknowledged, But Deserves Recognition
Miles Teller (Whiplash) – While Whiplash will most likely only see gold for J.K. Simmons, you cannot understate the power of Miles Teller for being able to match that intensity, beat-for-beat. He has even asked to explore a deeper range of emotion than his co-star, perfecting the mentor/mentee archetype to which the whole film relies.
Best Actress
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) – As previously mentioned, the performances in The Theory of Everything make the film, and Felicity Jones is the other half to that equation. Almost more so than Redmayne, Jones is asked to run the emotional gamut from love to despair and self-loathing. Both sides of the pairing make the whole, and both should see recognition.
Julianne Moore (Still Alice) – Already projected by many as this category’s victor, Julianne Moore has grabbed a great deal of attention for this portrayal as a professor dealing with early onset Alzheimer’s disease. Her degradation is heartbreaking to witness, as more of the disease consumes her personality and soul.
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) – Likely the popular choice in this category, Rosamund Pike is challenged with personifying Gone Girl’s immediately iconic twist. The meat of the story’s second-act revelation requires her to play both innocent and deceitful, and one disguised as the other. Context is everything, and Pike’s performance holds up with every visit back to the film.
Reese Witherspoon (Wild) – After turning down Gone Girl to do this film, Reese Witherspoon leads a fascinating journey of self-discovery. The non-linear story structure showcases the depth to which Witherspoon explores the character – and she holds the experience up with little support.
Jennifer Aniston (Cake) – Aniston has long struggled to move past the comedic roots that defined her TV career in the 90s, and Cake may finally deal her the hand that she’s searched for.
Won’t Be Acknowledged, But Deserves Recognition
Scarlett Johansson (Under The Skin) – Science fiction is rarely given the time of day in the eyes of the Academy, though I hoped this art house oddity would gain at least some buzz for Scarlett Johansson’s vague, menacing lead role. She is the monster that lurks at night, conveying equal parts sexual and violent energy. It’s strange, it’s ambitious and it’s a shame that it’s going ignored.
Best Picture
Best Picture is simultaneously the easiest and most difficult race to call in this game. While there’s a solid handful of films that can be assured for a spot on the list, there’s no guarantee of how many nominees there will be. For safety, I’ve listed a full ten with the most likely contenders taking higher positioning.
Boyhood – This film has mounted one of the most challenging Oscar campaigns in recent history (having been in wide release since this summer, far earlier than most contenders), yet it’s still holding onto overall frontrunner status. It’s the safest bet in an otherwise unsteady year.
Birdman – It’s very likely that come Thursday morning, when the press starts to cover the nomination list, Birdman will make many headlines as a leader in overall nominations. It’s a lock for Picture, Director and Actor, with Supporting Actor/Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography all within grasp. But the real question is, can any of those elements rise to the top? Or is Birdman destined to always be the bridesmaid, never the bride?
Selma – There has never been a more important time for a movie like Selma. It’s more than a simple biopic, more than just a cold reenactment of history. It’s an emotional reconstruction, one that triggers both empathy and understanding. The Academy loves a statement, and while recent controversy over historical accuracy may harm it’s long-term chances, Selma is as good as gold.
The Theory of Everything – Redmayne’s stunning portrayal will likely win him the gold, but The Theory Of Everything as a whole has strong direction, score and cinematography to elevate the whole.
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson has gained a lot of cult respect over the past few years, with a strong filmography of consistently rich and unique stories. Slowly that cult respect has leaked into the mainstream, and this could easily become the year’s feel-good nomination after a shocking win over Birdman for Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) at the Golden Globes.
The Imitation Game – Rounding out the top five, Imitation Game has thus far mounted a very stable Academy campaign. It’s in elite standing with Birdman and Boyhood as earning Picture nominations in the Globes, BAFTA, PGA and Critics Choice, plus a Best Cast nomination at the SAGs. In a straight numbers game, that makes Imitation impossible to ignore.
Foxcatcher – Six months ago, I’d have considered you insane to have Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher at anything less than lock status in this category. I’d also be saying the same for Steve Carell in the Best Actor race. But every year’s race needs a falling star, and it seems this true-crime drama is set to play that role. Strong performances should still earn it a slot, but we’re now in the half of the list where nothing is safe.
Whiplash – On the opposite end of the spectrum, few films will make you feel more uneasy this year than Whiplash. It’s loaded with brutal intensity, an unrelenting pressure that could turn many voters off. But without a doubt, it deserves a spot in the conversation.
Gone Girl – As David Fincher’s best box office performance ever, Gone Girl is a force in this race through sheer exposure. It’s the contender that everyone has seen, and has strong performance that ensures some level of conversation.
Wild – Wild is a hard nut to crack. Witherspoon’s performance has been a constant present in the year’s nomination lists, and in a year with fewer standout female performances, she may elevate the film to a bigger weight class. However, this far down the list it is important to note that a film only gains a nomination if it can pull 5 percent of ballots in the top (or near the top) spot. Wild has a fanbase, but how many would rank it in their top three?
Won’t Be Acknowledged, But Deserves Recognition
The Babadook – It’s interesting that this Australian import was labeled and marketed to many as a horror film. While it does deliver scares, and features a titular monster that hides in the shadows, the full creation is so much more. An emotional drama between mother and child, with both Essie Davis and the young Noah Wiseman, who each draw so much passion and fear out of monsters both literal and self-created.
Follow Chris Berg on Twitter @Mushroomer25
Oscar nomination predictions – Part Two
Chris Berg
January 12, 2015
0
More to Discover