The Oregon Ducks have never won a national championship in football. Ranked second in the nation with an undefeated record, only seven regular season games and potentially a Pac-12 Championship Game stand in the way of the Ducks’ second trip to the BCS National Championship in three years. There are a multitude of reasons the Ducks will win it all this season and just as many they won’t.
Why Oregon will win:
The odds
Earning the title of national champion is a long shot. There are 120 teams playing Division I FBS football. The University of Oregon has been playing football for 119 years. If the odds add up, then this is the year it finally happens for the Ducks.
Being No. 2
The Ducks slid into the No.2 spot in the AP Poll heading into week five, the highest ranking Oregon has ever achieved that early in the season. Ranked that high that early affords the Ducks possibly one slipup before the season is too old and potentially having the opportunity to finish the season on a win in the Pac-12 championship against a high-ranked team.
Points
With the fifth-highest scoring offense in America, at 52.4 points per game clip, the next-best offense the Ducks will face in 2012 is Arizona State, which is scoring almost 14 points (two touchdowns) fewer per game.
Fate
Keeping with earlier vein of destiny, in the past three years, Oregon has attended three BCS bowl games. The Ducks lost the 2010 Rose Bowl, lost the 2011 National Championship and then won the 2012 Rose Bowl. If the pattern continues, a return to the biggest stage and victory is up next. Wouldn’t the student class of 2013 enjoy that as a sendoff?
A paved path
The other contenders for the crystal ball right now (the rest of the currently undefeated teams) will cancel each other out, beating each other up in conference play. Alabama and LSU will have to play and whoever wins that will most likely have to play whomever comes out of the SEC East alive, which includes No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 South Carolina and No. 10 Florida. West Virginia, Texas, Kansas State and TCU will scrap it out in the Big 12 and Notre Dame and USC will battle late in the season. This leaves Florida State as the only team with a good chance of finishing undefeated in the mild ACC.
Why Oregon won’t win:
Lack of experience
Yes, Marcus Mariota, De’Anthony Thomas and Colt Lyerla are impressive and as a trio have accounted for 1,659 of the Ducks’ 2,753 total yards, but having sophomores account for 60 percent of your offensive output doesn’t give the Ducks anyone to turn to when they need experience.
The loss of John Boyett and Carson York
Missing two senior captains, both of which have started for all three of Oregon past three BCS bowl game runs, isn’t just a massive depletion of talent and on-field veteran savvy, it is a loss in the locker room and in the huddle leadership.
The Pac-12 is just too good
Currently the Pac-12 has half of its membership inside the AP Top 25. Many of those teams have proven they can pull off big upsets already. Everyone has known since the schedule was announced that the Ducks’ date at the Coliseum with USC would be their toughest test, but now Oregon State, which has rocketed to the No. 14 spot, suddenly becomes a huge test just before the Ducks could potentially be on the road again for the Pac-12 championship.
The big, bad SEC
Say the Ducks make it to the Natty. Quite an achievement. The reward? A likely matchup with a team from the SEC, which has produced the last six national champions. If an SEC team makes it to Miami they will have been battle-tested in the roughest conference out there. The last two SEC opponents the Ducks have faced were Auburn and LSU, both losses in which the Ducks offense was stifled by physical defenses.
Pollsters
Even if the rest of the contenders bruise each other a bit it is because they got into a boxing ring. Oregon doesn’t have massive marquee matchup on the schedule anymore aside from USC, which fell from grace early in the season. There is a potential that an undefeated Ducks team could be passed over for a one-loss team. If the Ducks lose a game or two, it could prove impossible to be voted into the Natty.