Change – it can be good, bad or ugly. I think over the next 50 years America is set to get a little uglier. Future political ideology is almost impossible to predict, especially for us since we tend to swing back and forth from moderate-conservative to moderate-liberal policies. However, there is a sort of perfect storm in the making that will foster changes to promote protectionism, dependency on government and ultimately a weaker America.
I have settled on six political and economic subjects that will shape this perfect storm:
The failed attempts of the Bush administration to correctly articulate the reasons for staying in Iraq or show any sense of urgency to get the job done will cost the Republican Party state and federal elections for a long time to come. In order for dependency on government to take hold we need politicians in office who believe government is the answer to our problems. The Iraq war will get them there.
Our economy is shifting gears and this, understandably so, alarms some. We are evolving from an early 20th century economy of industrialism – products based on lots of steel and manufacturing – to one now driven by the service sector, producing wealth through computer programming, consulting and franchising. Granted, because of the Internet, service jobs are being outsourced at a significant rate as well. Nonetheless, this doesn’t alter the fact that our economy is innovating its main consumption and exporting products just as it did a century ago with agriculture. Unfortunately, it’s easy to see jobs being lost while difficult to realize the tangible goods that come from this shift the free market has determined is best for our country. Politicians who offer protectionist policies will only slow this shift while simultaneously making America less competitive – yet many still call for government intervention.
While it has been proven that income disparity is good in the long run, there is no denying that the divide is widening. There are two reasons I believe income disparity will get exponentially worse in the near future. First, globalization will allow for a small fraction of people to capitalize on major innovations, and the wealth created from those innovations will take longer to trickle down the economic ladder. Second, America’s abysmal K-12 education system is providing less students the tools necessary to become independent self-sufficient citizens. This will fuel policies based on redistribution of wealth that have the unintended consequence of not only discouraging new investment but also furthering investment in the exact place we don’t want it: other countries.
If energy prices continue the way they are going we could experience a period of stagflation. This is a combination of inflation and economic stagnation – it’s the worst of all the ‘flations. Prices will increase and unemployment will follow suit. We experienced this in the 1970s and are poised to make the same mistakes today as we did then. To be sure, we are setting ourselves up for another Jimmy Carter moment. It’s not difficult to imagine the next president attempting to manipulate the market through price fixing. Not the Federal Reserve, Congress nor United Nations can control the price of oil. Because it’s a commodity we currently can’t live without, we will inevitably look to the government for a solution forwarding even greater dependence on this corporate entity.
Just as President Bush does regarding national security, Al Gore plays on our environmental fears. His doomsday scenarios are the vehicles by which increased government regulation on business, trade and general economic growth will become accepted. The worst part about presumptive manmade climate change is that it will not only provide justification for big government but will also force us to hand our sovereignty to the United Nations.
It amazes me that despite the fact that 85 percent of Americans have health insurance, some are willing to tear the entire system down instead of tweaking the one we already have through deregulation and innovation. Besides computer technology, medicine is the only other market in which America still holds a world-wide monopoly. Don’t kid yourselves, the moment health care is socialized we will lose that economic sector to other countries and it very well could open a Pandora’s Box of socialist regulation of every aspect of our economy. Government control of health care will make complete government dependence inevitable, not to mention take away the most basic right we have, that to have a choice with what we do with our own bodies.
In the war of ideas those who agree with me are losing. If these changes do emerge I blame my camp for not articulating the possible effectiveness our policies could produce. Those who advocate liberty over perceived equality are going to have to step up. Either that or we can all pack our bags and move to Monaco.
[email protected]