Will the rest of the Pac-10 keep UO out?
Oregon’s home loss to Washington State on Saturday was a big one, as it puts their NCAA tournament hopes on the thinnest of bubbles.
A win would have put the Ducks in a third-place tie with the No. 21 Cougars at 7-6. Instead, they sit tied with Cal for seventh at 6-7.
The Pacific-10 Conference sent six teams to the tournament last season for just the second time in conference history, and some analysts think the parity the Pac-10 has seen this season could hurt the conference on selection Sunday.
Still, no matter how thin the Ducks’ margin for error is at this point, senior forward Malik Hairston said Saturday after the loss that he feels like this is a tournament team.
“We have plans of playing in the tournament,” said Hairston. “And I still think we have a couple of angles we can approach it from.”
Senior forward Maarty Leunen was equally optimistic. “We’re still not out of it. We’re right there, in control of our own destiny.”
And some notable analysts agree with them. Most have Oregon getting in as an 11 or 12 seed, which is in line with the Ducks’ No. 50 RPI and good strength of schedule. But most also have the Ducks as one of the last few teams to get in.
Other Pac-10 teams’ NCAA Tournament chances:
| ARIZONA: | Asian The Wildcats’ recent surge should get them in given they have the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation. |
| ARIZONA STATE: | Their recent slide has them on the bubble alongside Oregon. If both teams finish 9-9, the Sun Devils are more likely to sit out with a worse RPI. |
| CALIFORNIA: | The Bears are likely out of it with a .500 Pac-10 record and a tough schedule ahead of them. |
| OREGON STATE: | Maybe if they threaten the selection committee with nasty text messages, they’ll find a way in. |
| STANFORD: | An absolute lock for the tournament. How they’ll fare once they’re in, however, is another matter. |
| UCLA: | Another lock for the tournament and should go deep in the bracket. |
| USC: | The Trojans have played well (they beat UCLA) and then have played inconsistent. Thursday’s game will be enormous for both teams. |
| WASHINGTON: | If Jon Brockman scores 20 points and 20 rebounds in every Pac-10 tournament game, there’s a chance they’ll see some postseason action. |
| WASHINGTON STATE: | The Cougars are a lock after beating the Ducks on Saturday and have a favorable schedule left to play. |
One would think that a split in Southern California this weekend, a win over Oregon State the following week, and a home split with the Arizona schools (which would get Oregon to 9-9 in the Pac-10 and 18-12 overall) could get the Ducks in if they can pick up a win or even two in the conference tournament to get to the 20-win mark.
A tall order, but should the Ducks accomplish it who would they face?
ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi has the Ducks going into the tournament as a 12-seed in the Midwest Regional, while SI.com’s Stewart Mandel projects an 11-seed for Oregon in the West Regional.In both scenarios, the Ducks’ opponent is Drake University – Missouri Valley Conference Champions with a 23-2 overall record. The Bulldogs’ schedule features road wins over Iowa and Creighton and a home win over Southern Illinois.
The good news for Oregon in this matchup is the size and style of the Drake Bulldogs. After spending a season in the Pac-10, with its murderer’s row of big men, a Drake lineup that starts a 6’8″ forward as their tallest player should be a breath of fresh air for the Ducks.
If the Ducks can ride the bubble and make a late run to the tournament in the grueling Pac-10, the road will get easier. Even with a worse seed, the first round could hold a nice matchup for a battle-tested Pac-10 team.
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How many teams will the Pac-10 send to the tourney?
Much of Oregon’s chances in reaching the NCAA tournament will depend on how the rest of the Pacific-10 Conference teams fare as the season winds down. The question is whether or not the Ducks will be included if they finish with a 9-9 conference record.While other leagues have had .500 teams reach the postseason in the past, there hasn’t been an instance of a .500 Pac-10 team making the tournament.
If the Ducks hope to reach the tournament, the other mid-level Pac-10 teams will likely have to finish with identical, or worse, league records.
Both UCLA and Stanford are shoo-ins for the tournament as each stands above the rest of the league while Washington State’s record still keeps them ahead of the rest of the pack.
Meanwhile, Washington and Oregon State are the only ones that are locks to be left out unless, in an unlikely event, either wins the Pac-10 Tournament.
The rest, however, can be tossed in the air and no one would be surprised with where each team landed in the standings. Whether the .500 teams make it, it’s up to the selection committee to decide how strong or weak the Pac-10 is compared to the other conferences.
As ESPN’s Andy Glockner puts it: “Parity is really eating away at this league’s chances for more than five bids. As Arizona State, Cal and Oregon keep floundering around, none are putting together a profile that is clearly NCAA Tournament-worthy.”
And while Sports Illustrated’s Stewart Mandel projected eight teams into the tournament, he said he doesn’t believe that’ll be the outcome on Selection Sunday.
With less than one game separating five teams, the games should be an interesting dog fight. If that parity is a good or bad thing for the Pac-10, if it implies good competition or a bunch of inconsistent teams, only time will tell how the conference is viewed across the nation.
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