Movie and television fans beware: 2006 will be an interesting time for you. Two technological trends are set to hit this year, and both are going to change the way people consume visual media. Home theater technology is experiencing a high-definition corporate war, while the portable theater revolution is just being pushed out of the technological womb.
Home theater companies have been slowly integrating high-definition technology into television sets for years. While older tube televisions use analog signals to transmit a lower-definition picture, high-definition TV uses a digital signal and transmits a much cleaner, more lifelike picture. Although standard DVDs will work on HDTVs, they cannot take advantage of a set’s high-definition capabilities. In an effort to capitalize on this market, Sony and Toshiba are creating their own high-definition formats. In their race to fill the gap left by the now-surpassed DVDs, Sony and Toshiba are entering a product war that will ultimately end up hurting consumers. Such a war already happened 20 years ago, but it seems neither side learned its lesson..
In the 1980s, there were two formats for watching home movies: JVC’s VHS system and Sony’s Betamax. The two were incompatible with each other, and it was a long and costly battle before VHS became the dominant format. Consumers were hesitant to purchase either system, for fear their choice would become obsolete and a waste of money. In an effort to avoid another costly battle for format supremacy, the major home theater corporations came together and adopted a single standard, Digital Video Disc, in 1995. All DVDs worked in all players. All was well with the world, consumers came to trust DVDs, and the home movie market flourished for a time.
With the new high-definition trend already upon us, there has been no universally accepted high-definition format. Instead, Sony and Toshiba have created their own incompatible high-definition formats: Sony’s Blu-ray and Toshiba’s HD-DVD. According to research by technology news Web sites such as arstechnica.com and www.tomshardware.com, Blu-ray and HD-DVD will be similar in performance. Blu-ray discs will have more storage space than HD-DVDs, and peripheral and support technology will differentiate the two formats. Sony’s upcoming PlayStation 3 will only support Blu-ray discs, while the Xbox 360 will get an external HD-DVD attachment. HD-DVDs are cheaper to produce, while Blu-ray may offer Java-based games. Blu-ray will have HD and standard DVD material on one side of a disk, while HD-DVDs may have the content separated on either side. However, both sides are remaining rather secretive, vaguely hinting at future pricing, support and product alliances. Even vaunted tech blogger and reviewer Gizmodo has been unable to secure much concrete information.
To most consumers, the differences are negligible, but the risks of buying into either side are great. Companies are being forced to join sides, and if one of the formats fails, so too do all the supporting products. Still wary after the VHS-Betamax debacle, many consumers are opting to wait until a clear victor has been decided.
Until one format becomes standard, this race for the high-definition media player may suffocate the industry.
The portable theater trend is much more positive and exciting. Portable theater is the home theater experience on portable media players such as video iPods, portable media centers and video capable cell phones. Although the portable theater experience does not have the stunning visual or audio capabilities of a massive home theater, it does unchain the visual media consumer from his or her couch. With advanced portable media players such as the Neuros 442, consumers can capture and move media between their TV, computer and player. Media traditionally reserved for computers can be watched on the television, and TV shows can be moved to computers with equal ease. The barriers dictating what kind of content can be easily consumed on each media outlet are breaking down.
Portable theater also has vast implications for how television is made. In the current model of television production, advertising revenue funds the content. However, a recent multi-part feature by NPR covered a growing trend spawned from portable theater. Because portable theater-users typically purchase their content via Web sites, advertisers will no longer be the medium’s primary financial supporters – consumers will be. Shows that appeal to a niche market will still be able to survive based on consumer spending instead of ratings. Because portable television no longer needs to be formatted into “mini-chapters” to conveniently shoehorn in ads every 10 minutes, television producers can create content specifically for portable theater users free of advertising constraints. Shows longer or shorter than one hour may appear. Shows may stop being dropped mid-season. Independent producers and shows will become more prevalent, making quality shows and distributing them via the Web. NPR has already featured a television producer who is creating material specifically for use on portable media players. If these trends continue, the best television may never be played on a TV set, but on a portable media center.
This trend may have far-reaching implications. Advertisers will have to find a way to lure in an audience that pays to keep ads out of their media. Some companies are already addressing this by creating long and outrageous advertisements distributed on the company Web site. These ads, unusable on standard television because of time and money constraints, could become a new trend in entertainment.
Where may these trends lead to by the end of 2006? Reports from arstechnica.com hint that Sony and Toshiba are trying to compromise on one HD format, but an agreement seems unlikely. The following year may be a quagmire of corporate warfare, and home theaters will likely suffer for it.