University economics professor Tim Duy has been tracking Oregon’s economy independently for years, but the rest of the state is starting to take notice.
Since September 2004, Duy has authored the University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators, a monthly report that examines several factors and puts them into a comprehensive picture of the state’s economic climate. The report provides a wider view than one factor alone would, something Duy said there hasn’t been much data on before.
“I thought there needed to be a widely publicized snapshot of what the economy was doing, and I thought this was the way to do it,” Duy said. “I wanted to finally set up variables that largely described economic activity in the state, and take a snapshot of that.”
Duy’s work allows companies better access to current economic trends that may affect their future economic decisions.
“I think the community gains from it by having a measure of economic activity that is frequently available,” Duy said. “From a planning perspective, that’s useful.”
The index started somewhat small at its beginning stages in 2004, when Duy worked with former University graduate student Tanya Raterman to compile data, he said, but now the report is sent out to about 200 people and businesses each month. It is also widely covered in several media outlets, he said.
The report can also bring a positive exposure to the University’s economics department, giving the public a sense of active faculty research.
“This is what we do, and the research we do can be beneficial to the community,” Duy said.
Jo Anna Gray, a University economics professor and associate dean of the College of Arts and Sciences, agreed that the report provides better accessibility to complex research at the University.
“I think it helps drive home the relevance of both the research and the teaching that goes on,” Gray said. “Tim’s a great teacher… He’s very much in touch with what goes on in the real world and this sort of applied research.”
The annual Oregon Economic Forum held in Portland, of which Duy is also the director, complements the monthly index as well, Gray said.
“Those kind of developed hand in hand, and I think both of them have worked out,” she said.
Both the index and the forum were supported initially by the College of Arts and Sciences, Gray said.
There are also plans to specify the monthly report to assess only certain regions like central Oregon, which often differ strongly from the rest of the state, said economics department head Larry Singell. The department is also considering adding a class to the curriculum that would teach students how to compile economic data and make their own assessments, Singell said.
To compile the data for his own index each month, Duy sets up a computer program to monitor several local and national economic indicators such as unemployment claims and consumer confidence, among others, which are then combined into one index number each month. The figure represents economic trends based on fluctuations from month to month, Duy said.
“The units don’t have any value, which is why the level is not something to watch – it’s the percentage change,” he said.
In the most recent report, the index found little growth in the state’s economy, showing only a 0.2 percent increase from December to 106.2 (1996=100). The stagnant activity is largely in step with the rest of the nation’s activity, Duy said.
“The basic story is that Oregon’s economy has eased back over the last six months, in particular from the gains we saw in 2004 and 2005. Largely, this is in line with national trends,” he said.
Duy added that the trend shouldn’t worry consumers.
“The index is not telling that there is a recession in the wings,” he said. “It’s basically just growing less quickly.”
For Duy, taking the extra step to compile the monthly report was easy, given his prior interest in the subject as an economist.
“I’m always following these numbers anyway,” Duy said. “It’s sort of taking work I do and packaging it up into an accessible form for other people.”
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