Once you follow Oregon football for a while, you start to realize two things:
No. 1 – the national media are loath to acknowledge the Ducks as a power until it is already a widely known fact among college football enthusiasts.
No. 2 – they are quick to drop them out of the conversation at the faintest whiff of weakness.
That is why this weekend’s game against California is a must-win for Oregon. No matter what coach Mike Bellotti says about his faith in his team’s ability to bounce back should it lose this game, if a Bowl Championship Series bowl game is what this team aspires to then it desperately needs each and every win.
I’d be willing to bet that if the Ducks lose this weekend they could roll undefeated through the rest of the season and still miss out on an invitation to the BCS party.
It has happened in the past. Before last week’s game we all revisited the Stanford debacle of 2001; now let’s move forward in Duck football history to 2005.
The 3-0 Ducks were ranked No. 24 nationally after eking out a 37-34 win over Fresno State Sept. 17, 2005. The buzz around Eugene was palpable as they welcomed the national powerhouse USC Trojans into Autzen Stadium the following Saturday, Sept. 24, but Oregon was beaten thoroughly by the Trojans, 45-13.
And though the Ducks would win every game left on their regular season schedule, finishing 10-1, they would be snubbed by the BCS and end up losing to Oklahoma in the Holiday Bowl.
To me, if the only loss on your schedule is to the defending national champions (who would go on to play in another national championship game in 2005, losing to Texas), you deserve a BCS bowl bid.
But the national media and the powers that be in college football (including the computers) don’t seem to get to see much of the Ducks, or think very highly of their wins. They do, however, tend to keenly remember Duck losses. Even when those losses are to great teams.
But this year is set up perfectly for the Ducks. They have their marquee non-conference road win against Michigan. They have achieved a high rank early, which is a huge factor when you look at how the BCS matchups start to take shape here in a couple of weeks. And they have the right schedule, taking on the conference powerhouses on their home turf.
“We knew at the beginning of the season that we were going to have some key games at home,” said senior linebacker Kwame Agyeman. “So we knew that as long as we could take care of our home field advantage and not lose at home this year we could have a good season.”
Sure, but lose this game against Cal and you can kiss a “great” season goodbye. A “good” season will still be within reach, but great? No.
Because, like it or not, the Ducks could beat the tar out of every team they face for the rest of the year (including USC) and all any of the college football illuminati will remember is that hyped-up game against Cal that Oregon lost.
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