At the Pacific-10 Conference football media day on July 26, members of the West Coast football media made their annual vote to predict finishing order of the Pac-10’s football teams. At media day, Oregon was predicted to finish sixth in the conference – which is understandable after last year’s disappointing season.
Of course college football is unpredictable – if it wasn’t, Ohio State would be the BCS National Champion right now. But for the sake of trying to predict the unpredictable, the Emerald sports staff decided to look into the crystal ball – by picking up a controller.
Using EA Sports’ NCAA Football ’08, the Emerald simulated the 2007 football season – and the Ducks’ first bowl victory since Joey Harrington led Oregon to a Fiesta Bowl victory.
NCAA ’08 is one of the best-selling sports video game franchises in the United States, and along with big-brother Madden NFL, its release every year is eagerly awaited by football fans ready to start the new season – at least in their homes. This year’s version is no different, and in its second season on the next-generation Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 platforms, it is a step ahead of NCAA ’07. In the game, Oregon is rated 87/100 overall, with a score of 92 for its offense, 83 for defense, and 66 for special teams.
In the simulated season, the Ducks finished with the same record as their 2006 counterparts on the field – 7-6, but with a victory over 11-2 UNLV in the Las Vegas Bowl. Three of the virtual team’s losses were to squads that finished in the top 10 with 12-1 records: Michigan, UCLA and USC.
Let the games begin
The simulated season started out well enough for the Ducks. The Sept. 1 home opener against the Houston Cougars ended up a 38-14 victory for Oregon. However, it only took one week for Oregon to drop back to a .500 record, with the trip to the Big House to play top-five Michigan resulting in a 24-7 loss. The Ducks returned to Autzen and picked up another expected victory, rolling over Fresno State 33-17.
Opening the Pac-10 season on the road didn’t faze Oregon either, as the digital Ducks took an easy victory over last season’s doormat, Stanford, 35-5. Yes, 5 – Stanford pushed the Ducks into a safety in the first quarter. However, their first home conference game did not go nearly as well, as California came to town and flattened Oregon in a repeat of last year’s matchup, 42-19. While Cal is expected to finish second in the real-life Pac-10 media poll, the Bears did not fare as well in Dynasty mode, finishing seventh in the conference with just four wins all season.
The Cal loss was compounded by a loss to Washington State, as the Cougars scraped a 35-31 victory out of their trip to Autzen in a season that saw them wind up in the Sun Bowl. The first road trip to Husky Stadium in four years for the Ducks ended in success, as a Jonathan Stewart touchdown run from the 1-yard line with 20 seconds left in the game gave Oregon a 23-22 win. The top-ranked USC Trojans came to visit the following week, and flattened Oregon 49-17 en route to yet another national championship title game berth.
Arizona and Arizona State both ended near the basement of the Pac-10 (10th and 8th respectively), and both teams fell to the Ducks. The Sun Devils went down by a score of 38-24 while the Wildcats fell 44-7. UCLA continued its march to the Rose Bowl with a 30-21 victory over Oregon in Pasadena.
For the first time since 1996, the home team failed to win the Civil War – in-state rivals Oregon State defeated the Ducks 38-21 at Autzen, and locked up a Holiday Bowl bid in the process.
The Ducks felt a case of deja vu as they earned a second-consecutive Las Vegas Bowl invite after their 6-6 season and fifth-place Pac-10 finish. They faced Mountain West Conference champion UNLV, which entered the game 11-1 and featured one of the top quarterbacks in the nation. However, with 10 points in the first quarter (including quarterback Dennis Dixon’s 20th touchdown pass of the season), Oregon was able to hold on to a 17-10 win and finished the season 7-6.
In a rematch of the 2006 Rose Bowl, USC faced Texas in the BCS National Championship Game in a matchup of two of the nation’s three undefeated teams – West Virginia was the third – and Texas prevailed once more, beating the Trojans 38-17. In a meeting of two top-10 teams, UCLA beat Ohio State 27-14 in the Rose Bowl, and Oregon State beat Nebraska 34-22 in the Holiday Bowl. Washington State lost to Notre Dame 34-21 in the Sun Bowl, and Washington beat Utah 32-26 in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The final top-five in the nation after the simulated 2007 were Texas, West Virginia, Tennessee, USC and UCLA.
Dixon digitally blossoms
Dennis Dixon was the undisputed offensive catalyst in Oregon’s simulated season, winding up with almost 2,500 all-purpose yards. He completed 156 out of 327 passes for 2,184 yards and 20 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. Dixon finished with a 117.9 passer rating and 168 yards per game. On the ground, Dixon ran for 361 yards and two touchdowns.
Jonathan Stewart was the workhorse, rushing the ball 188 times for 1,102 yards and 14 touchdowns. Averaging a mighty 5.8 yards per carry, Stewart ran up 84.7 yards per game. Junior wide receiver Jaison Williams pulled in 58 receptions for 746 yards and five touchdowns. Sophomore wide receiver Derrick Jones led the team in touchdown receptions, pulling in 8 from his 33 receptions and 620 yards. He also had a 92-yard reception in the season, a team best. Senior Brian Paysinger caught 29 passes for 419 yards on the season.
On defense, senior linebacker A.J. Tuitele led the team with 78 tackles. The now-transferred lineman Dexter Manley – still in the roster for NCAA ’08 – led the team with 14 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. Senior cornerback Jameel Dowling led the team with 5 interceptions, and finished alongside rover Patrick Chung on the All-Pac-10 team at the end of the season. Chung also earned a place on the All-American second team with his play in the simulated season.
Can life imitate art?
Looking at the Pac-10 standings from the simulation, Cal is unlikely to fall completely out of bowl contention, and the conference is close enough that the Arizona and Washington schools could pull the position-swap in real life that happened in the game. And nationally, it’s likely that USC, Texas, Tennessee, and West Virginia could all factor in their conferences, though LSU and Florida are conspicuously absent from the national picture in the simulation.
Dennis Dixon has shown he has the talent to replicate his video game performance in real life – but the question that doesn’t come up on the Xbox 360 is his confidence. Chung’s second-team All-American nod (and receiving consideration for the Thorpe Award, given to the best defensive back in the nation) is a nice recognition of his talents, though no other Ducks figured in the end-of-season awards.
The offense should be just as potent as last season (finishing third in offensive scoring behind Cal and USC), the pass defense should be as well, but the lack of tight losses against the virtual top teams suggests that what Oregon needs is some luck on its side to topple the best teams in the conference and their marquee non-conference opponent, Michigan. That’s the sort of magic that can’t necessarily be given an attribute in a video game.
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How the simulation works
The Emerald used the Xbox 360 version for the simulated Dynasty, which had no roster changes or players redshirted for the season. Recruiting was ignored. At the start of the season, the entire regular season was simulated, then the bowls were simulated. Statistics in the article are from after the bowls.
Screenshots for the article were acquired through the new EA Sports Highlights feature, which allows players to upload a set number of pictures and replay videos to easportsworld.com. The screenshots were not taken from the simulated Dynasty game
s, but instead from Play Now mode.
Pac-10 media poll
1. USC
2. California
3. UCLA
4. Arizona State
5. Oregon State
6. Oregon
7. Arizona
8. Washington State
9. Washington
10. Stanford
‘NCAA 08’ Pac-10 final standings
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Oregon State
4. Washington State
5. Oregon
6. Washington
7. California
8. Arizona State
9. Stanford
10. Arizona
‘NCAA 08’ Pac-10 bowl appearances
USC vs. Texas – 38-17 L, BCS
National Championship
UCLA vs. Ohio State – 27-14 W, Rose Bowl
Oregon State vs. Nebraska –
34-22 W, Holiday Bowl
Washington State vs. Notre Dame – 31-24 L, Sun Bowl
Oregon vs. UNLV – 17-10 W,
Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Utah – 32-26 W, Armed Forces Bowl
‘NCAA 08’ Oregon stats
Passing –
Dennis Dixon: 117.9 rating, 156-327, 2184 yds, 20 TD, 10 INT. 168 yards per game, long: 92 yards.
Rushing –
Jonathan Stewart: 188 att., 1102 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, 14 TD.
Long: 55 yards. 84.7 yards per game.
Dennis Dixon: 97 att., 361 yards, 3.7 yards per carry, 2 TD. 5 fumbles.
Receiving –
Williams: 58 rec., 746 yards, 12.8 yards per catch. 5 TD, long: 74 yards.
Jones: 33 rec., 620 yards, 18.7 yards per catch. 8 TD, long: 92
Paysinger: 29 rec., 419 yards, 14.4 yards per catch.
Defense –
Tackles: Tuitele, 78.
Tackle for loss: Manley, 14.
Sacks: Manley, 6.
Interceptions: Dowling, 5.