Watching the first half of the women’s basketball game against the Portland Pilots on Monday night, I went back and forth between cringing and being amazed. One moment, the Ducks would throw the ball away after attempting an ill-advised pass, and the next moment, Micaela Cocks was hitting a three-pointer or freshman Amanda Johnson was making a nice drive to the hoop.
This year’s team really baffles me. I don’t know how the players can look confident and unbeatable for a half, then the next half drop 15 turnovers and shoot 20 percent. But unlike the men’s team, in which I have yet to see any flashes of promise in this year, the women are almost there.
To me, they seem like a person fumbling around in the dark for the light switch, and once their hand finds the switch, it’ll all click into place.
They are that close. Freshmen Johnson and Jasmin Holliday have both broken the starting five, and lately they have played with poise far beyond their half-year of experience. Junior Lindsey Saffold has also found her own, and if the team can only get healthy enough to field a full team, there’s no telling whom they can beat down the stretch.
But before the Ducks can even think about upsetting a few teams, they need to figure out how to play cohesively. All the parts are there, and now they need to put them together.
I’ve always been a firm believer in three certain statistics being the indicator of whether a team is good. They are turnovers, rebounds and assists. Here’s my reasoning: If you’re not turning over the ball, then you are eliminating extra possessions for the opposition. If you’re rebounding well – both offensively and defensively – you’re also taking away touches by the other team. Thirdly, if your team has a high number of assists to the number of field goals you make in a game, it shows that you are sharing the ball and actually running an offense.
These three indicators explain a lot when applied to the Ducks. They are ninth in the league in turnover margin, coughing up the rock 19.8 times per game. In the rebound department, Oregon is seventh in defensive rebounds and dead last in offensive rebounding.
Their assist numbers aren’t much better. The Ducks are ninth in the Pacific-10 Conference in assists, with 10.8 per game. I look at these three categories all the time. Without fail, the good teams take care of the ball, are tenacious on the boards and pass extremely well.
All the Ducks need is a little time to gel as a team. They had an extremely tough non-conference schedule, but their lack of a low-post defender is the weakness of the team right now. Sophomore Ellie Manou has the talent, and she showed it early in the year against some of the smaller and weaker teams on Oregon’s schedule, but she has been almost non-existent in Pac-10 play. She is averaging eight points and five rebounds a game, but with post Nicole Canepa still out with her ankle sprain, Manou needs to provide the Ducks with some relief inside.
Against bigger teams like Stanford, the Ducks struggle to establish anything inside the paint, and players and head coach Bev Smith both admitted that their main focus has been to pound the ball inside and try and get something going. However, against Portland, the team kept turning the ball over trying to pass it inside. Until they can prove that Manou and the other posts can be a dangerous part of the mix, teams will continue to hedge out on Cocks and Taylor Lilley and force them to pass the ball.
All that aside, the potential is there. There’s one senior on the team and the future is bright for Oregon. With a 4-4 record in conference play, it won’t take much for the Ducks to end the regular season with a winning record. They would need to win the conference tournament to even have a sniff at the NCAA Tournament, but if they finish strong, an NIT berth could be in store.
[email protected]