Oregon and Ohio State have two common opponents on the season: USC and Purdue. The Buckeyes lost to the Trojans and the Boilermakers, while the Ducks beat both teams. Common opponents, viewed through the prison of the Rose Bowl, should have minimal impact in the eyes of pundits.
Ohio State has played spread-offense teams before. Purdue and Michigan run full-on spread offenses, and Penn State uses something called a “Spread HD” that is very effective. Nevertheless, as Buckeye defensive end – and future NFL player – Thaddeus Gibson told me, Ohio State has no real basis of comparison to the Ducks.
I respectfully beg to differ, however. I see one Buckeye opponent that shows similarities to the Ducks. This particular team lost to Ohio State on October 10, 31-13, but has won its bowl game this season.
No, the Wisconsin Badgers are not stylistically similar to the Ducks, but the statistics come surprisingly close. Oregon is 25th nationally in total offense; Wisconsin is 33rd. Wisconsin is 19th nationally in total defense; Oregon is 33rd, separated from the Badgers by 19 yards per game. Wisconsin’s opponents scored 22.42 points per game; Oregon’s scored 23.58.
Both teams excel at running the football. The Badgers average 206.67 yards a game – 14th nationally – behind a road-grading offensive line and bruising running back John Clay. Oregon prefers to set up its running backs in space, with the offensive line engaged in zone blocking. LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are short, slippery speedsters with the strength to break arm tackles. The Ducks have racked up 236.08 yards per game, the sixth-best mark in the nation.
I see the stylistic differences of the Badgers and the Ducks as being statistically negligible. Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzein is a pro-style pocket passer and has put up much better numbers in that department than Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, but Masoli’s ability to run the football (nearly 60 yards a game) adds an extra dimension that Tolzein doesn’t possess.
Defensively, Wisconsin is better at stopping the run; Oregon is better at stopping the pass, but Ohio State’s play calling is not balanced. Terrelle Pryor threw 17 passes in each of the Buckeyes’ last three games and just 13 against the Badgers; throwing 25 passes or more – a number I believe is critical for Ohio State’s success in the Rose Bowl – would represent a shocking deviation from the norm for head coach Jim Tressel. Oregon fans can look forward to seeing eight men in the box and concerted efforts to stop talented running backs Brandon Saine and Dan Herron, along with Pryor.
The Wisconsin-Ohio State game from this season was ultimately decided by turnovers, always a crucial factor but more so in the Rose Bowl, where the faster-paced Ducks and the clock-draining Buckeyes will fight to control the pace. Ohio State safety Kurt Coleman intercepted Tolzein and returned the ball 89 yard for the game’s first touchdown, late in the first quarter. Wisconsin responded with a Chris Maragos touchdown run and a Philip Welch field goal, but the Buckeyes responded with a Pryor touchdown pass to DeVier Posey to end the first half.
Wisconsin’s first series of the second half was cut brutally short, as Jermale Hines intercepted Tolzein a second time and returned it 32 yards for a touchdown. Wide receiver Ray Small – suspended for the Rose Bowl due to academic issues – returned a kickoff following a second field goal by Welch for the game-icing touchdown, beat the Wisconsin kick coverage on a 96-yard run.
Wisconsin controlled the ball for 42:47, gaining 368 total yards on 89 plays and converting 22 first downs. Ohio State gained a mere 184 yards on 40 plays, with eight first downs and just 87 yards passing from Pryor. Turnovers ultimately doomed the Badgers against the Buckeyes. Masoli has thrown interceptions against both Oregon State and Arizona at the season’s end, and his penchant for fumbling is as worrisome as the Ducks’ penchant for recovering his fumble is relieving.
Oregon will beat the Buckeyes if the defense commits to stopping the run. Forcing Pryor to throw 25 or more times in a game is forcing the Ohio State coaching staff outside its comfort zone, and Pryor is running out of reliable targets after the suspensions of Small and freshman Duron Carter. Offensively, the tempo will be the story, and I like Oregon’s chances against Ohio State’s very talented defense. The Ducks have all the tools to make a statement, and success lies within the blueprint followed by the Badgers.
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