Lucas Clark: For the No. 7 Oregon Ducks and the No. 13 Oregon State Beavers, Thursday night will either be a storybook ending or a demoralizing defeat. The Ducks entered the season with national title aspirations but after their slip up at Boise State on Sept. 3 and again at Stanford on Nov. 7, Chip Kelly’s squad has one goal at this point in the season: to win the Pacific-10 Conference title and make the trip to Pasadena, Calif., to play in the Rose Bowl. The implications are obviously larger than life, but Oregon is 6-0 in Autzen Stadium this season and has a lot of momentum coming off the dramatic double-overtime win over Arizona two weeks ago.
Jesse Severson: The pressure for this all-important Civil War seems to weigh heavier on the Ducks’ feathered shoulders. They come in as the favorite when it comes to the national media and the headlines would read “Ducks upset,” instead of “Beavers win.” To fall at home, where they’ve been stellar all season long, would lead to questioning if the season was a success: a string of dominating performances sandwiched between two devastating losses. On the brighter side, they would still finish as the No. 2 seed for a bowl. A loss to the Ducks would be heart breaking for the dark-horse Beavers for two reasons: one, it would mean their rivals from the south had knocked them out of a possible Rose Bowl two years in a row and it would send them to a drastically worse Bowl — possibly the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl. However, as the home team and the favorite, the Ducks are the ones who have everything to lose.
LC: There’s no doubt that a loss for either team would be devastating with so much at stake, but junior quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has found a way to make the big plays all year long when the Ducks have needed them the most. His numbers may not jump off the page, but Masoli leads one of the most powerful offensive attacks in the country that puts up more than 37 points per outing. Having thrown only four interceptions on the year proves that he can be trusted late in the game, despite being deemed “careless” by some. And his six-touchdown performance last week again showed that he is one of the premier playmakers in the Pac-10 Conference.
JS: There will be a solid quarterback on the other sideline, as well — something that the Ducks have not been used to while playing in Autzen. While their 6-0 record may look impressive on paper, the best quarterback to come into the bedlam that is Autzen has been a freshman, USC’s Matt Barkley, who, besides the hype, has put up far-from-Heisman numbers. What Sean Canfield will bring for the Beavers, including a senior presence, is the conference lead in passing yards per game (254.3), completion percentage (70.3), and touchdown passes (19) and only two more interceptions than Masoli despite attempting 106 more passes. It could come down to what makes more plays — Canfield’s left arm or Masoli’s legs?
LC: Agreed. Canfield is arguably the best quarterback that the Ducks will face all season in terms of moving the ball through the air, but Oregon’s tattered and beaten up secondary is slowly improving week by week. The loss of senior cornerbacks Walter Thurmond III and Willie Glasper left Oregon hurting and scrambling for answers, but the play of freshman safety John Boyett and sophomore cornerback Javes Lewis has been nothing short of stellar. Lewis leads the team with 72 tackles on the year, while Boyett follows closely behind with 67. The Duck’s heavily touted freshman cornerback Cliff Harris has been a welcoming surprise in the Oregon secondary as well and his ability to tackle in the open field will be tested against OSU’s dangerous fly-sweep.
JS: For the Oregon State defense, the most important key will not be the amount of time, but the reason for the amount of time the Ducks’ high-flying offense has the ball. Chances are, the Ducks time of possession will be lower than the Beavers, seeing as the Ducks are ninth in the conference in T.O.P. per game. However, that could come at two ends of the spectrum: either it is because the score-before-you-can-blink offense is plowing through the Beavers’ defense like a buzzsaw, or Oregon State is forcing the Ducks out of their game and into three-and-outs (see: Boise State). It should be an interesting match-up on the ground: Masoli and freshman LaMichael James lead the top-ranked Pac-10 rushing offense (231.4 ypg) but will have to find their way though the Beavers’ top-ranked Pac-10 rushing defense, which allows 98.5 yards a game, more than 10 yards better than the second best team.
LC: The fact that Oregon’s defense will be on the field for the majority of the game is nothing new, and if all is going well it should be expected. When the Oregon offense is firing on all cylinders it puts points up on with short drives that often end in long runs by James or Masoli, but both teams have proven to be exceptionally efficient in the red zone all season. Ranking first and second in the conference in that category, the Beavers have converted on 96 percent of their red zone attempts with the Ducks following closely behind at 95.7. But on the flip side, Oregon features the top-ranked red zone defense in the conference, while OSU sits in ninth. It will be times like these that ultimately decide the game in my mind. Both teams are going to make their runs; it will just be a matter of who can respond most adequately.
JS: Also something to think about has been Mike Riley’s history when he’s had time to prepare. He’s undefeated in bowl games and has a strong record after bye-weeks. This season his Beavers went to USC and almost (and should have) came out with a win. Last season, the Beavers knocked off the top-ranked Trojans at home and beat Arizona State with a week off before hand. Same story in 2007, when Oregon State took out Stanford and the Ducks. Take in consideration last season, the Ducks thrashing of the Beavers in Corvallis came when Oregon had a bye-week to prepare. With a week-and-a-half (two-and-a-half if you include that the Beavers didn’t have to worry about Washington State) you can be sure that Riley will have his top game plan ready for the Ducks.
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Daily Emerald
December 1, 2009
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