Make no mistake about it, Oregon is 100 percent focused on USC this week.
And that’s how it should be.
But for the rest of us, mapping out a trip back to the BCS National Championship Game is relatively within reason. Now, I’ve heard for the past several weeks that the Ducks would need something along the lines of “complete chaos” in order for this to happen.
Maybe that’s true, but this is college football in November, where chaos thrives on Saturday.
No. 4 Oregon takes on No. 18 USC@@http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fbs@@ at home this weekend after a two-week hiatus in Seattle and then Palo Alto. The Trojans are back on the rise, as shown by their 8-2 record@@http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/usc-m-footbl-sched.html@@ and triple-overtime loss to Stanford a few weeks back.@@http://www.usctrojans.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/103011aaa.html@@
For the sake of this argument, let’s chalk it up as a win for the Ducks — going away for that matter.
The following week?
Sorry, Oregon State, but I think we all know that game won’t be nearly as competitive as the last two.
That means the Ducks will likely host the first-ever Pac-12 title game against an Arizona State squad they’ve already beaten at home or a .500 UCLA squad.@@http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/ucla-m-footbl-sched.html@@ (Can you imagine a playoff atmosphere in Autzen Stadium? It’s frightening.)
Let’s chalk that one up as a win, too.
Now, that would put Oregon at 12-1 overall on the year, with an undefeated 9-0 record in league play for the second-straight season.@@http://www.goducks.com/SportSelect.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=500&SPID=233&SPSID=3377@@ Quality wins over top-20 teams in Stanford, USC and Arizona State lightly pad the resume, while a 13-point loss to LSU seems to only look better as the weeks pass.
As of the most recent BCS standings, which don’t figure to change by Sunday, Oregon trails top-ranked LSU, No. 2 Oklahoma State and No. 3 Alabama.
Let’s start with ‘Bama.
The Crimson Tide (9-1, 6-1 SEC)@@http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide@@ rolls into Georgia for a Week 12@@ASK KENNY@@ nonconference game against Georgia Southern of the Southern Conference this weekend.@@see previous@@ Even at 9-1, expecting anything other than a lopsided loss from the Eagles is irrelevant. The following week, Alabama goes to Auburn for another winnable game.
Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 Big 12)@@http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-state-cowboys@@ closes out the year at Iowa State, currently eighth in the Big 12 standings,@@http://www.big12sports.com/SportSelect.dbml?&DB_OEM_ID=10410&SPID=13139&SPSID=106181@@ before a highly anticipated showdown at home against No. 5 Oklahoma@@http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fbs@@ on Dec. 3@@http://www.okstate.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/okst-m-footbl-sched.html@@. Even without wide receiver Ryan Broyles,@@http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/broyles_ryan00.html@@ the Sooners can never be overlooked. Historically, Oklahoma has the upper hand in the all-time series, and this game will have the biggest effect on Oregon’s hopes of reaching the title game.
Lastly, there are those damn Tigers.
Winners of 10 games in a row, LSU goes to Ole Miss on Saturday to face one of two teams in the SEC without a conference victory (Tennessee is also 0-6).@@http://espn.go.com/college-football/conferences/standings/_/id/8/sec-conference@@ No question that’s the 11th tally in the win column.
The SEC race gets a little more interesting the following week, when No. 6 Arkansas@@http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fbs@@ goes to LSU. The Razorbacks have won six straight games, including wins over then-No. 14 Texas A&M, then-No. 15 Auburn and then-No. 10@@changed from 9@@ South Carolina along the way.@@http://www.arkansasrazorbacks.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=6100&SPID=2419&SPSID=30723@@
Hard to imagine LSU dropping one at home in late November though, huh?
The winner of the SEC West will undoubtedly win the conference title game and move on to the BCS National Championship.
Again, as it should be.
Which brings us back to Oregon. Would a one-loss Oregon team with three wins over top-20 teams and one loss to LSU beat out a one-loss Oklahoma State team with two wins over top-25 teams and a loss at home to Oklahoma?
Pretty tough, isn’t it?
Clearly, the point of this column has been speculation, hypothetically looking three weeks into the future to see where the top four teams in the country will finish. And for the most part, they’ve been easy picks. Except for the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State matchup.
Even if the Cowboys drop one to the Sooners, there’s still no way to tell who the computers would like more between them and the Ducks. Some ridiculous numbers have been put up on both sides, backed by equally impressive wins.
And so we play the waiting game, for a few more weeks at least, as the Ducks put their heads down and take care of business.
Until then — Boomer Sooner, OK U!