By most measures, California has been given virtually no shot to defeat Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Thursday night.
The betting line has been set at 24 points, and Oregon (3-1, 1-0 Pac-12) ranks ahead of the Golden Bears (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12) in virtually every statistical category. The fact that the Ducks have won 18 straight home games all but locks it up in the minds of many prognosticators.
Mark Helfrich isn’t one of them.
Oregon’s offensive coordinator had a front-row seat for last year’s nail-biter in Berkeley, and sees no reason to expect anything less from the Golden Bears this year.
“They’re outstanding,” Helfrich said. “Last year I thought they were the most talented team in the conference on offense and defense. They’re really good … they played quite a few guys at all levels of their defense, and so there’s some familiar faces (this year), unfortunately.”
Foremost among those returning contributors are linebackers Mychal Kendricks and D.J. Holt. The two seniors form the core of California’s 3-4 defense, which has held opponents to just 78.25 rushing yards per game this year.@@http://www.calbears.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/cal-m-footbl-mtt.html@@
“(They’re) active, four real good linebackers,” Oregon head coach Chip Kelly said of the Golden Bear defense. “Create a lot of pressure on the quarterback.”
Indeed, California’s pass pressure has been nearly as effective as its run defense. The Golden Bears average 3.25 sacks per game, good for fourth in the Pac-12, though they will be challenged by an Oregon front line that has given up just one sack this year.@@http://www.pac-12.org/portals/7/images/Football/2011-Stats/HTML/confldrs.htm@@
“They’re pretty good at football,” junior left guard Carson York said. “This year we gotta be more prepared for a couple different looks, whatever they’re going to throw at us.”
If there is one distinct advantage to the arrival of conference season, it is the level of familiarity between each of the original 10 teams. Kelly knows all of the ins and outs of California coach Jeff Tedford’s system, and vice versa. If nothing else, the Ducks will not be caught off guard.
“There’s a lot of familiarity once you’re back in the league,” Kelly said. “We’ve played Cal and they’ve had the same coach for the last couple years, and they’ve played us and we’ve had the same staff for the last couple years. So we’re pretty familiar with each other.”
The wild card in this year’s matchup is California quarterback Zach Maynard. The junior took over for departed senior Kevin Riley, and though Kelly doesn’t anticipate any drastic changes in California’s offense, he can’t truly evaluate Maynard until he sees him in person on Thursday.
“We expect the same type of Cal attack,” Kelly said. “Obviously it gets tailored depending on who your quarterback is, but you can’t get a real assessment until you kind of see those guys in person.”
Thus far, Maynard has proven a worthy successor to Riley. The Greensboro, N.C., native has already thrown for 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns, with just three interceptions. He has also proven to be a threat on the ground; his 43-yard run earlier in the season ranks as the longest for any California player this year.
“This kid seems like he’s a little bit more athletic,” Kelly said. “He can run a little bit, but it’s not like they’re running the wishbone (offensive set) or anything.”
Team personnel aside, matchups between Oregon and California have always been closely contested. Eight of the last eleven games have been decided by margins of 10 or less, and the Ducks don’t expect anything different on Thursday night. If some have forgotten about last season’s narrow 15-13 escape on the road, the Oregon players certainly haven’t.
“It’s always been a slugfest against Cal,” senior right guard Mark Asper said. “Whether it was three years ago, two years ago, or last year, it’s always been a slugfest up front with them because they have really big, tough defensive linemen who do a good job of assignment football.
“They did a good job preparing for us last year, and I anticipate them doing the same thing. So we’ve tried to answer the call.”