The ink was barely dry on the stories of the BCS National Championship Game before scores of proud Oregon fans declared, “We’ll be back.”
Really? It took 115 years to get to this point in the first place, where “national championship” no longer applied just to track and field.
For the sake of example, however, I am perfectly willing to assess the Ducks’ chances before National Signing Day, before spring practices, before any sense of reason enters my head. Feel free to clip and save this column. Bemoan me if my predictions are accurate. Laugh and dismiss me if I am wrong.
Let’s start with what the team should actually look like. The offensive line takes a couple hits, as only right tackle Mark Asper and left guard Carson York remain. Jeff Maehl and D.J. Davis will both graduate; Maehl, hopefully, will move on to the NFL. Only Terrell Turner remains from this past season’s defensive line, and only Josh Kaddu remains from among the linebackers. Talmadge Jackson III is the only member of the secondary leaving.
Who fills those spots? We’ll start along the offensive line, because those who remember Oregon’s 2009 opener against Boise State understand the importance of an offensive line that works together. Darrion Weems steps into the role of full-time left tackle after seeing plenty of game action over the past year; Weems is a remarkable talent but needs to play with consistency. Nick Cody, another rotation standard, moves in on the right side, interchangeable with Asper at guard or tackle.
Center is a major question mark, since Jordan Holmes’ shotgun snaps and leadership will be near-impossible to duplicate. Holmes’ backup, the steady Max Forer, also graduates. Junior college transfer Ryan Clanton and sophomore Karrington Armstrong appear to be the most likely candidates.
Josh Huff is likely to step into the starting lineup full-time at wide receiver as Lavasier Tuinei takes Maehl’s old spot. Eric Dungy — who has impressed on the scout team — and Justin Hoffman will compete for the third starting spot; both will likely see extended time.
Defensive line rotation regulars Taylor Hart, Wade Keliikipi and Dion Jordan will likely assume starting roles next season. Hart, in particular, was impressive this season in spelling Brandon Bair. Michael Clay assumes Spencer Paysinger’s outside linebacker spot, while Dewitt Stuckey and Kiko Alonso compete for the middle linebacker job. At cornerback, Cliff Harris finally locks down his starting spot — with the requisite caveat of good behavior.
Oregon’s 2011 schedule features non-conference games against LSU in Dallas (Sept. 3), Nevada at home (Sept. 10) and Missouri State at home (Sept. 17). Pac-12 Conference home games include Cal (Oct. 6), Arizona State (Oct. 15), Washington State (Oct. 29), USC (Nov. 19) and Oregon State (Nov. 26). Conference road games include Arizona (Sept. 24), Colorado (Oct. 22), Washington (Nov. 5) and Stanford (Nov. 12).
What jumps out immediately is the favorability of the conference schedule. Arizona State and Cal both came close to beating Oregon last season; USC projects to reload with even more blue-chip recruits and emotions will continue to run high in the Civil War. In his short tenure as head coach, Chip Kelly has not lost a home game, and he gets a favorable run at continuing that streak.
The Ducks’ last conference loss was against Stanford in Palo Alto, so that game will raise several red flags. Oregon needed double overtime to beat Arizona two years ago, and talented wide receiver Juron Criner will return to haunt the Ducks another day. No sense sleeping on Washington, either, as the Huskies will be chomping at the bit to see their rivals vanquished.
Much will be made of that opening date against LSU at Cowboys Stadium in the coming months, but it will be the dealmaker. Win, and Oregon’s road to the national championship gets easier. Lose, and there will be no national title game. The Tigers are another athletically talented, fast Southeastern Conference team that could give the Ducks fits.
My early prediction: two losses — one to LSU and one in Pac-10 play — and an appearance in the inaugural Pac-12 title game. That won’t be enough to get to the Natty — but what’s wrong with a possible second Rose Bowl appearance in three years?
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