For the first time since 2004, Oregon is going into the Civil War against Oregon State knowing that this will be the final game of its season. For the past couple of years, Oregon has played well after the regular season due to Pac-12 championship games and bowl games.
Yet this season hasn’t worked out as planned, and Oregon is officially eliminated from bowl contention with a game left to play.
The Ducks haven’t lost the Civil War in eight years, but the Beavers have shortened the talent gap between the two teams, and Oregon State has as good of a chance as ever to win this Saturday.
Oregon offense vs. Oregon State defense
Ranked first in the Pac-12 in rushing offense, Oregon has the chance to run all over Oregon State’s defense, which is ranked 10th in rushing defense. Oregon’s running game has combined for 30 touchdowns, the most in the Pac-12. Running backs Royce Freeman and Tony Brooks-James have the most with nine and eight, respectively.
For the past couple of weeks, Freeman hasn’t been performing up to his usual standard; however, he had his most effective game in weeks during Oregon’s win against Utah last Saturday, with 20 carries for 129 yards. Freeman still hasn’t tallied a touchdown since the Washington State loss, though, and Oregon’s lone rushing touchdown against Utah was from quarterback Justin Herbert.
Herbert may be the key to Oregon’s success. The Beavers’ passing defense ranks fourth in the Pac-12, the same as Oregon’s passing offense. Where Oregon State struggles is its inability to force interceptions, tallying only seven; tied for last in the Pac-12 with Arizona. Luckily for the Ducks, Herbert has only thrown four interceptions in the eight games he has played, and the Ducks’ passing game is the third most efficient in the Pac-12.
What the Beavers are talented at is breaking up passes and causing fumbles. While Oregon has only forced two fumbles all year, Oregon State has forced 12, led by Devin Chappell with six.
Oregon State offense vs. Oregon defense
Oregon State’s offense relies on running the ball and rarely throwing it. This is because, like Oregon, the Beavers have had some quarterback issues. After starter Darell Garretson and backup Conor Blount both were injured in Oregon State’s loss against Utah, Oregon State has been using third-string quarterback Marcus McMaryion.
Since then, McMaryion has thrown 88-for-150 with five interceptions and nine touchdowns. He is coming off his best game last week against Arizona, where he threw 16-of-19 for 265 yards and five touchdowns.
Still, expect Oregon State to primarily use running back Ryan Nall, who ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in rushing yards. He could run all over Oregon’s defensive line, which has been consistently bad this season to the point where a freshman linebacker leads the Ducks in tackles.
However, if Oregon’s defense can perform the way it did against Utah, the Ducks should be able to win their ninth Civil War in a row.
Follow Hannah Bonnie on Twitter @hbonnie03