Nearly half of the Oregonians polled about a Legislature-approved tax surcharge would vote against the measure if opponents are successful in referring it to a February special election, according to a recently published survey.
The poll — conducted by Moore Information, a public opinion research firm — revealed that 48 percent of registered voters would vote no on the tax measure and 33 percent would vote yes. The remainder are undecided.
The Oregon Legislature approved the tax surcharge in August to generate revenue for the state’s budget shortfall.
If opponents of the tax surcharge gather 50,420 signatures by the Nov. 25 deadline, the measure will go to a statewide vote on Feb. 3. If voters reject the tax hike, about $792 million would be cut from the 2003-05 state budget, including $11 million from the higher education budget.
Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski could then call a special session of the Legislature, wherein legislators would scramble to make changes to the budget.
The survey recorded the responses of 500 registered Oregon voters across the state.
Support for the tax surcharge was divided geographically by the state’s mountain ranges. Voters to the west of the Coast Range and east of the Cascades mostly opposed the tax measure, while those living within Multnomah County and the Willamette Valley generally supported the surcharge.
The poll confirmed that Democrats most strongly favored the surcharge, with 46 percent in favor and 40 percent against. Republicans overwhelmingly opposed the tax hike with 69 percent against it and 11 percent in support.
Independents were more evenly split, with 43 percent saying they would vote yes and 39 percent saying no.
Taxpayer Defense Fund campaign manager Angela Wilhelms said she wasn’t surprised by the poll numbers, adding that her organization is “encouraged by them.” The Taxpayers Defense Fund is one of the groups behind the petition to bring the tax surcharge to a state vote.
“There’s been a groundswell of support for the referendum,” Wilhelms said. “But it’s not shocking to see how much support there is.”
Wilhelms said higher taxes wouldn’t help the state out of a recession and would drive businesses and other revenue sources out of the state. She said the referendum would allow Oregonians a chance to vote on an important issue.
“I would encourage people regardless how they feel about the tax increase to support the concept (of the referendum) to go in front of people,” Wilhelms said. “This is exactly what democracy is made of.”
Bob Lawrence — spokesman for the Our Oregon Coalition, which is supportive of the surcharge — said the organization was actually “somewhat encouraged” by the poll numbers because the opposition to the tax surcharge was less than 50 percent.
“We’re not under any illusion that … this is any slam dunk for us, but we’re confident that we can get our word out to people and that people understand what is at stake here,” Lawrence said.
Lawrence said the coalition was currently working on a “grassroots campaign” and talking to groups that would be the most affected by the rejection of a balanced budget. He said the organization has been in touch with groups on all of the major campuses around the state.
“Most college students know what the hits on higher education are like,” Lawrence said. “More budget cuts mean a bigger impact on college students.”
The tax surcharge will probably require the average Oregon family to pay about an additional $88 in state taxes each year, according to the Legislative Revenue Office. The surcharge would apply to the 2003, 2004 and probably the 2005 tax years.