WASHINGTON — Even as U.S. troops and armor pour into the Persian Gulf, President Bush faces rising pressures on multiple fronts to slow down the momentum toward war.
As recently as a few weeks ago, senior Bush administration officials were suggesting that a U.S. invasion to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein might begin soon after a pivotal report from United Nations’ weapons inspectors on Jan. 27.
Now, the target date appears to have slipped to late February or early March at the soonest, U.S. officials and analysts say.
In the latest sign of a possible delay, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is said to be leaning against a plan to begin a war in Iraq with bombing before all necessary U.S. ground forces are assembled in the Persian Gulf region. Those forces are not expected to be in place before mid-February.
The apparent rejection of that so-called “rolling start” option is just one of the diplomatic, military and domestic developments that could postpone the invasion start beyond the mid-winter date favored by Bush’s more hawkish advisers.
Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix insisted this week that he needed until at least March to assess Iraq’s willingness to disarm peacefully. “We have no such timeline on the work we do now,” Blix said, when asked about U.S. troop deployments. “I am operating on my own timeline.”
Concerned by public opinion hostile to a war, U.S. allies, including close Bush friend Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, are counseling patience.
Neither Blix nor the U.S. government has made public a “smoking gun” showing Saddam is hiding banned weapons of mass destruction, which may be needed to galvanize world opinion.
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan added his voice Tuesday to those urging that more time be given to the weapons inspections.
“I don’t think from where I stand we are at that stage yet,” Annan replied when asked whether there should be an invasion even if no illicit weapons are found. “I think the inspectors are just getting up to full speed.”
U.S. officials, eager to keep their options open, insist publicly that there never was a timetable for war.
Bush went out of his way Tuesday to dispute suggestions that the administration’s determination toward Saddam is weakening.
“I’m sick and tired of games and deception,” the president said. “I haven’t seen any evidence that he has disarmed. Time is running out on Saddam Hussein. He must disarm.”
Rumsfeld signed two major deployment orders over the weekend, to dispatch 62,000 more Marines, Army soldiers and Air Force personnel to the region.
With those deployments, the number of American forces in the region is expected to grow to about 150,000 air, ground and naval forces in the next several weeks. An additional 100,000 are expected in the region by mid- to late February to be ready for a full-scale air and ground assault on Iraq.
Those deployments create a momentum of their own.
Some analysts suggest that American war planners must launch an attack before the end of February in order to conclude operations before the scorching heat of the Persian Gulf summer begins. Summer in Kuwait and Iraq begins in late May and lasts through August. Temperatures have been reported as high as 120 degrees.
But senior U.S. military officers in Kuwait dismiss the idea that U.S. forces face an arbitrary deadline imposed by the weather. Many of the troops have already spent many months training for summertime temperatures.
More than any other factor, public opinion here and abroad is complicating Bush’s military calculations.
A national Knight Ridder poll released Sunday found that only about a third of Americans support a war against Iraq without backing from the United Nations and U.S. allies.
To gain that backing, Bush may need rock-solid proof that Saddam is lying when he says Iraq has no nuclear, chemical or biological weapons programs. So far, no such “smoking gun” has been made public and, on the surface at least, Iraq has cooperated with weapons inspectors.
Leaders in Turkey, Britain and across the Middle East, while not necessarily opposed to ousting Saddam, have citizens who are.
In the United States, tens of thousands of anti-war protesters from 40 states are due to converge on Washington this weekend.