A recently released University survey shows President George W. Bush has a narrow edge over Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in Oregon.
The survey of 444 registered Oregon voters, conducted between March 19 and April 7, shows Bush leading Kerry 47 percent to 45 percent, according to a University press release. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of 4.7 percent.
Political science Assistant Adjunct Professor Joel Bloom, who directed the survey, said the results show that either party could succeed in taking Oregon in the November election.
Bloom said Oregon is a close state this year, much like it was in the 2000 election. He added that Oregon has typically been considered a Democratic Party-supporting state, but over the years the Republican Party has been making headway.
“Oregon is really less of a safe Democratic state than it was,” he said. “This is a state that Democrats are going to have to work hard for.”
He said even though Democrats have taken Oregon in the last four elections, former Vice President Al Gore took Oregon by fewer than 7,000 votes in the 2000 election.
“Despite a Democratic edge in party registration, the state does seem to be trending Republican, making it a critical state for Democrats to hold onto, and providing Republicans with a golden opportunity for a pick-up,” he said in the release.
University College Republicans member Anthony Warren said he expects Bush to gain popularity in Oregon because of his Healthy Forest Initiatives, which Warren said are environmentally friendly.
“I think that Bush has a good chance of winning Oregon,” he said, adding that he does not put much faith in polls and that it is far too early to determine Oregon’s favorite.
The survey also found that 1 percent of Oregonians supported independent candidate Ralph Nader and 6 percent were undecided. Bloom compared the recent survey to a March 4 poll conducted by The Oregonian, which had Kerry leading Bush 45 percent to 40 percent.
The survey shows Kerry leading in the Portland area, 53 percent to 40 percent, with Bush leading throughout the rest of Oregon, 51 percent to 39 percent.
Kerry also leads among independents and political moderates, while Bush leads Republicans and conservatives. Bush also leads with voters between 18 and 44, while Kerry leads with voters over 45. College-educated voters also prefer Kerry, according to the survey.
The survey points out that a number of national polls show Kerry leading Bush, but that Bush leads in “battleground” states such as Oregon. Bloom noted that Kerry is not well known throughout Oregon, which allows Bush to more easily affect perceptions of the Democratic candidate. He said Bush’s negative ad campaigns portraying Kerry as favoring tax increases are causing Kerry’s ratings to drop.
“Those Bush ads seem to be tailor-made for Oregon’s increasingly anti-tax environment,” he said in the survey.
University College Democrats co-Chairman Kevin Curtin agreed that the state is a “battleground” for the two parties, although he sees Kerry pulling ahead considering Gore did so in the last election.
“(Oregon’s) going to be very important to the election,” he said.
Bloom said it is important to note the survey’s time frame and that it’s too early in the game to truly predict the outcome of Oregon’s majority vote.
“At this point it really could go either way,” he said.