Numbers, especially statistics, are big in the softball world.
They tell the story. Suggest a trend. Give reasons for a demise. And tell us why the most valuable player is indeed the MVP.
So let’s take a look at the Oregon softball team, past and present. Let’s try to figure out their 2004 season, where it’s been and where it might be going.
This is all, of course, up in the air. So far, it has been a season of misdirection.
The Ducks, ranked 12th in the nation in the USA Today poll and two spots higher in the ESPN version, round out their 2004 regular season with a game Friday at Howe Field against Stanford, then a doubleheader the following day against California.
These games take extra special importance after three tough, but relatively unexpected, losses.
Oregon (35-14 overall, 9-9 Pacific-10 Conference) was swept by Arizona and Arizona State this past weekend on the road. Arizona, ranked first in the country, is obviously no slouch and easily defeated the Ducks, 5-0.
Arizona State, which sits last in the conference, got the Ducks in two straight, 1-0 and 3-0.
What do these figures mean? Well, simply that the Ducks are in danger of dunking themselves under the .500 mark in Pac-10 play. Oregon batted a paltry .223 against the Wildcats and Sun Devils,
dropping Oregon to .267 for the season.
The thing is, the .223 figure actually improved Oregon’s conference hitting. The Ducks are batting .218 in 18 Pac-10 games.
These numbers, of course, suggest the Ducks should be in the basement of the Pac-10.
However, further figures say Oregon belongs in the upper echelon of the Pac-10, where it is now.
Duck hurlers are holding opposing Pac-10 batters to a .221 clip this season.
That’s not a huge discrepancy when compared to the offense. But buyer beware: Defensive numbers that outweigh an offense’s could come back to bite the Ducks in the tailfeathers. Especially if the 0-3 streak slips to 0-6, or even 1-5, against the Cardinal and Golden Bears.
Well, why should all of this matter? After all, the Ducks are most assured of going to a regional. It’s a foregone conclusion. They’ve dominated opponents — at least up until last weekend — and have been the best team at Howe Field in more than a decade.
All of that’s true, without a doubt. But in a conference where seven teams are ranked, and the one team that isn’t — Arizona State — shuts you out twice in a row, it could be a concern.
Check that — it should be a concern.
Softball is much like its counterpart, baseball, and most other collegiate sports. It’s really not how a team starts the season, it’s how it finishes.
Momentum is everything, and finishing on a losing streak — Oregon is 2-1 combined against Stanford and Cal this season but 3-6 in its past nine Pac-10 games — could doom what has turned into a Duck dream season so far.
Ask most athletes and it’s harder to turn on the “on” switch when it’s off. Toggling it back and forth is harder; there’s less consistency.
If Oregon can hold its own this weekend, it could do something that no Duck team will have been able to do since 1994: Finish the conference season with a record of .500 or better. And the Ducks haven’t had a winning record since 1989.
With 21 games in the conference season, Oregon is assured of having a record above or below .500; an even record is not possible this season. So with at least two wins this upcoming weekend, the Ducks can make amends for 10 seasons of equal or sub-.500 seasons — and maybe even make up for 15 years of less-than-stellar play.
Beat Stanford on Friday, Oregon, and don’t let California turn the lights off Saturday. It’s not the only way to head into the postseason, just the best way.
The numbers are there. The Ducks have proven them right all season, especially in their last three games.
Let’s see if they can prove those numbers wrong.
My bet is numbers never lie.