“The death of Yasser Arafat is a significant moment in Palestinian history,” reads President Bush’s written statement issued after Arafat’s passing. “We hope that the future will bring peace and the fulfillment of their aspirations for an independent, democratic Palestine that is at peace with its neighbors.”
The president and his men might not openly celebrate the death of Arafat, but they clearly see it as an opportunity to create lasting Middle East peace. “I think we’ve got a chance,” he told reporters, when asked about finding peace with a new Palestinian government.
It’s a pretty bit of wishful thinking, to dream that one man was the single impediment to loving harmony between Palestinians and Israelis. After so many deaths, a single funeral, no matter how prominent or problematic Arafat might have been, will not go an inch toward bridging this bloody rift. We must not forget that part of the reason Arafat turned down the historic peace deal offered by then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, which would have satisfied most of the Palestinians’ demands, was because he felt he could not persuade his people to accept the plan. “If I accept what Barak has offered, I will go and have coffee with (the assassinated) Yitzhak Rabin in heaven,” Arafat said to President Clinton at the time.
Time and time again, broken treaties prove how worthless pieces of paper are without the support of popular or military strength behind them. Therefore, the new Palestinian leader’s goal will not be signing an agreement with Israel; it will be
persuading terrorists and their sympathizers, with logic and with force, that an end to violence would be in their own best interests. Given the history and the divisions of the Arab world, this task is probably impossible.
The successor of the Palestinian Liberation Organization will be facing an electorate more divided than the United States’ own, as proved by the recent protests against PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Gunmen of extremist factions shot and killed two security guards when the former Prime Minister Abbas was at a gathering, mourning Arafat’s death. Though Abbas denied the gunmen were firing at him, they shouted slogans accusing Abbas of being an agent of the Americans.
Even if a moderate manages to attain victory in January’s election, the PLO leader will be hampered by extremists in any attempts to deal with Israel. Israeli ministers last week refused to comment on which candidates he thought Sharon would work with for fear of them being voted against in the election for being supported by Israel. If Sharon’s suggestion that he is able to meet with someone results in a Palestinian backlash, it is difficult to see how the new leader can work with the Israelis at all without being accused of being a Jewish pawn. Until a leader can consolidate his own power, no treaty will be forthcoming, and unifying moderates and extremists under one harmonious government is most likely hopeless. Even Arafat himself professed powerlessness at dealing with the members of more extremist factions, and his heir will not have the same broad, popular support Arafat had.
Prime Minister Sharon’s task is to not pull back the olive branch. Not exactly a hippie peacenik himself, Sharon has made small concessions by withdrawing Israeli settlers from Gaza. Any headway toward peace at this stage will probably be incremental, and if Sharon can face down the discontents in his own party and continue making these small gestures, we can hope peace is not as far away as I think it is.
Paradoxically, the best the thing the United States can do right now to support the next Palestinian leader is to not support the next Palestinian leader, yet not undercut his government either. But the Bush Administration has demonstrated that it has the patience of a 3-year-old when it comes to foreign policy. In both North Korea and Iraq, the president refused to deal unless he got everything he wanted when he wanted it. It is important that Condoleezza Rice not show this customary heavy-handedness and disregard for nuance when she prepares to meet with Arafat’s successor.

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