Free from the pressure of campaigning for reelection and backed by a Republican majority in Congress, an optimistic President Bush outlined an extensive agenda for the next four years on Thursday. Yet experts remain uncertain about whether the president will be able to both satisfy his constituency and bridge the partisan divide as he tackles his domestic program.
Outlining his second-term plan, Bush vowed to bring democracy to Iraq, simplify the tax code, reform Social Security, trim the deficit, pass his energy plan and create jobs by helping small businesses.
“I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it,” Bush said. “It is my style.”
Associate Political Science Professor
Julie Novkov said Bush’s far-reaching agenda isn’t unusual.
“Presidents usually start their terms by announcing ambitious agendas, and it’s very difficult for them to get very far with the controversial pieces,” Novkov said.
Novkov said Bush’s ability to pass domestic legislation will depend on the specific issues being addressed.
“For the first several months, the Republicans may have some momentum and feel a need to pay back some of their more conservative voters who really worked to get out the vote, but as they get closer to midterm elections… the Republican Party may be forced to tack more toward the middle,” she said.
Novkov said bipartisan support for Bush’s agenda will depend on how Republicans deal with the current situation.
“The rhetoric coming from the current administration doesn’t seem like there will be a lot of room for reaching across the isle,” she said.
Novkov cited Republican pressure to deny Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which considers Bush’s judicial nominees, after pro-choice Specter said Supreme Court nominees who are against abortion were unlikely to be confirmed.
Assistant Law Professor Robert Tsai said Bush may use his “capital” is to shape the federal judiciary by appointing judges, including filling potential openings on the Supreme Court. Tsai said Bush, who has appointed about 170 judges to federal positions, may even have an opportunity to match President Ronald Reagan’s efforts to remake the judiciary — Reagan appointed about 350 judges, including three Supreme Court Justices.
Bush might be able to replace between one and four justices during his second term, as Chief Justice William Rehnquist suffers from thyroid cancer and several other justices of age, Tsai said.
Tsai said the “strong assertion of executive power by this particular administration” related to Guantanamo Bay detainees and security issues leads him to believe Bush will seek people with executive experience or who are open to broad executive power.
Novkov agreed that judicial
appointments will be extremely important.
“There’s a possibility for a fundamental debate on the constitutional level of executive authority depending on what judicial appointments are made,” she said.
Tsai said Bush decided to confront difficult issues by focusing on both Social Security and Internal Revenue Service tax code reform.
“He gets points for being ambitious,” Tsai said.
Tsai said there is a possibility for consensus on both issues, but he said Democrats will probably be more open to changes in the tax code if Bush’s changes are designed only to simplify the code and not make it a “less progressive tax.”
However, Tsai said attempts to revamp or privatize Social Security will meet with opposition from across the isle.
“My guess is Democrats will fight tooth and nail on that one,” he said.
He added that even minor progress on tax reform will give Bush credit.
“I think these issues are being pushed for a particular reason,” he said, adding that a positive Bush legacy would help whoever is running on the Republican ticket in 2008.
“When you personally no longer have an election hanging over you, you start thinking about your legacy,” Tsai said.
Bush said there will be changes to his cabinet, but he has not specified what these changes will be.
Past presidents have also faced political difficulties during their second terms. Bill Clinton underwent impeachment by the House after admitting to an affair with intern Monica Lewinsky, and the Iran-contra scandal marred Ronald Reagan’s second term.
“We expect too much. Second-term presidents get careless and cocky,” said Stephen Wayne, a political science professor at Georgetown University, according to an Nov. 6 Associated Press article. “They either overreach, or do something illegal, or don’t manage the way they should.”
