Predicting the Golden Globes is no small undertaking. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves to shake things up in the industry’s most high-profile awards races. The ceremony is also perhaps the most significant and widely consumed precursor to the more prestigious Academy Awards. Once criticized for its small voting body and conformity, the HFPA has recently expanded internationally, adding 215 members. This necessary change has already influenced this year’s superb slate of nominees.
I will only be tackling the film portion of the awards. For more on the year in television, see my Emmy predictions. Let’s get into the races!
Best Motion Picture – Drama:
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“The Zone of Interest”
As one of the decade’s most successful and well-regarded films, Christopher Nolan’s impeccably crafted historical epic is well on its way to an explosive awards season. Its strong technical production pairs nicely with its dazzling performances and chilling script, ensuring a likely win in this category.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Cailee Spaeny, “Priscilla”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Greta Lee, “Past Lives”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Gladstone’s harrowing turn as Mollie Burkhart in “Killers of the Flower Moon” is the heavy favorite, encapsulating the Osage Nation’s peaceful presence and unfortunate tragedy.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:
Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers”
Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn”
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Though some expect Cooper’s showy performance to emerge, Murphy’s career-defining lead performance as J. Robert Oppenheimer is more likely and, frankly, more deserving. His world-changing discovery eats away at his brilliant mind while his complicated romances become a side note. He’s cold, fiery and frightening.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
“Air”
“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“May December”
“Poor Things”
While a win for “Poor Things” is entirely possible and my desired outcome, Greta Gerwig’s pink powerhouse is practically undeniable. It’s a remarkable, empowering romp and one of the most creative blockbusters of the last few years. The HFPA will be chomping at the bit to award both halves of the magnificent “Barbenheimer” summer with the top prizes.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
Alma Pöysti, “Fallen Leaves”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Fantasia Barrino, “The Color Purple”
Jennifer Lawrence, “No Hard Feelings”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Natalie Portman, “May December”
This category is a cakewalk. Stone’s courageous, transformative performance as Bella Baxter proves her generation-defining talent. She navigates the world at her own pace, initially resembling a toddler and evolving into an eloquent, powerful woman. Her fierce optimism and hilarious worldview solidify her as one of my favorite characters of all time.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Beau is Afraid”
Matt Damon, “Air”
Nicolas Cage, “Dream Scenario”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Timothée Chalamet, “Wonka”
Giamatti is effortlessly endearing and hilarious in a new holiday classic. He plays Paul Hunham — a cranky, traditional boarding school instructor with an icy heart in need of thawing. By the end, you’ll be cheering on this sad, lonely old man like a close friend.
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture:
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Julianne Moore, “May December”
Rosamund Pike, “Saltburn”
Randolph is the clear favorite in a relatively uncompetitive category. Her performance as a bereft school cook in “The Holdovers” is exceptional. She offers a warm, forgiving presence opposite the film’s budding lead personalities. Her character will make you want to hug your loved ones and never let go.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Charles Melton, “May December”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
This category is a doozy. Every performance here is excellent, but it’s likely another “Barbenheimer” showdown. I will go with Gosling over Downey Jr. here, though I think the latter wins the Oscar. Gosling’s performance is outrageous and hysterical. It’s so deeply ridiculous that I can’t see anyone else pulling it off — easily one of the year’s standouts.
Best Director – Motion Picture:
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
As one of the premiere directors of the modern era, creating cinematic spectacles and trippy science-fiction thrillers, it’s about time Nolan secured some gold. “Oppenheimer” is far and away his most important project — a densely packed, tightly wound tale of guilt and the power of man. His direction pulls it all together seamlessly from start to finish.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture:
Celine Song, “Past Lives”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, “Barbie”
Justine Triet, Arthur Harari, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Tony McNamara, “Poor Things”
I’m going with an underdog and my personal favorite script of the year in “Past Lives.” The category is unbelievably dense, but I have a hopeful suspicion that Song’s gorgeous, glowing, earnest tale of love, change and memory will take this one.
Best Motion Picture – Animated:
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Suzume”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Wish”
“The Boy and the Heron” and “Spider-Verse” are some of the best animated films of the past couple of years and equally deserving of a win. The latter, however, is probably too much of a behemoth in the realm of animation to come up short this year. Its astonishing artwork pushes the boundaries of the medium and blends elegantly with a mature story of adolescence and responsibility.
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language:
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Fallen Leaves”
“Io Capitano”
“Past Lives”
“Society of the Snow”
“The Zone of Interest”
While “Past Lives” might be considered the favorite of the bunch in most categories, it only nabs a spot in this slate by technicality. Although it’s an American film, over 50% of the dialogue is in Korean. I think it’s pretty silly and exclusionary to nominate it here, and I think the HFPA will steer away from it for that reason. “Anatomy of a Fall” is one of the year’s best films, with a densely layered script and an incredible ensemble. I think it takes the cake here.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture:
Daniel Pemberton, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Jerskin Fendrix, “Poor Things”
Joe Hisaishi, “The Boy and the Heron”
Ludwig Göransson, “Oppenheimer”
Mica Levi, “The Zone of Interest”
Robbie Robertson, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
I commend the HFPA for such a diverse selection of films in this category; they hit it out of the park. I think Göransson wins here with his highly memorable, gripping score for “Oppenheimer.” There are so many moments in the film that let the music take hold of the experience.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture:
“Addicted to Romance,” “She Came to Me”
“Dance the Night,” “Barbie”
“I’m Just Ken,” “Barbie”
“Peaches,” “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Road to Freedom,” “Rustin”
“What Was I Made For?” “Barbie”
This category is quite easily “Barbie” versus “Barbie” versus “Barbie.” I think Billie Eilish’s ballad comes out on top because it emphasizes the film’s message and plays with emotions far more than its competitors.
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement:
“Barbie”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
The newest category to arrive at the Globes is pointless. There is simply no reason for this other than to please those who don’t watch many movies and want to feel represented at awards shows. It’s pretty easily going to go to “Barbie.” It’s the year’s highest-grossing film and is also in contention to win several more respectable awards.
