According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Oregon walked into California Memorial Stadium with an 81.6% chance of defeating the Golden Bears.

But the Ducks have become well acquainted with upsets this season. 
The goal in the first half for the Bears was simple: play keep away to limit Oregon’s time of possession, and give their shorthanded defense a rest. 

For the majority of the half, with some costly mistakes from the Ducks, this goal stayed true.

Oregon got on the board first with a Henry Katleman field goal around the eight minute mark. 

The Bears responded with an impressive drive capped off by a Chase Garbers  touchdown run on fourth down.

On the following Cal drive, the Oregon defense was undisciplined, making several costly, unforced errors.

The drive started with a Cal three-and-out, but an illegal substitution call from the Ducks on 4th down gave the Bears another chance. But the self-inflicted wounds wouldn’t stop there. 

Two third-down penalties on Kayvon Thibodeaux and Bennett Williams within the Oregon 20-yard line gave the Bears more chances. Finally, a one-yard touchdown run from Bradrick Shaw gave the Bears a 14-3 lead and ended the 19 play, nine-minute drive. 

“We gotta play cleaner, more disciplined football which means we got to coach more disciplined football,” said head coach Mario Cristobal.

Even still, the Ducks were able to respond. A blown coverage from the Bears on third-and-16 left Johnny Johnson wide open along the sidelines for a 39-yard touchdown to cut the lead to 14-10 with two minutes left in the half.

An ugly Cal drive gave Oregon the ball back with 50 seconds remaining. They marched down the field convincingly, flexing their explosive play-making ability  with a 70-yard pass to Travis Dye.

A Cyrus Habibi-Likio two-yard touchdown ended the 27-second drive and gave Oregon a 17-14 lead heading into the half. Despite Oregon being out-possessed 18:53-11:07 in the first half, they found themselves ahead heading into the locker room.

The Bears took the lead back with five minutes left in the third when Garbers took his first deep shot of the game. Going into the game, 75% of the Bears’ passing plays were for fewer than ten yards, but Garbers caught the Oregon defense sleeping and found Nikko Remigio over the top for a 28-yard touchdown and a 21-17 lead. 

The Oregon offense was held to no points and multiple three-and-outs in the third. Tyler Shough went just 1/7 with 11 yards in the quarter. But despite glimpses of late-game heroics, things wouldn’t improve in the fourth.

The fourth quarter consisted of more sloppy play from Oregon, turning the ball over on their first two drives. With tonight’s performance, Oregon’s turnover ratio falls to -7 on the year.  

“Turnovers hurt us tonight,” said Cristobal. “That’s on us, we need to execute better.”

The defense gave Shough and the Oregon offense a chance to win the game by shutting out the Bears in the fourth, and coming up with multiple key stops. 

Unable to do much of anything in the second half, the Ducks got the ball back with 2:01 left on the clock, down by four points with a chance to leave Berkeley victorious. 

The offense finally gained momentum with quick completions to Mycah Pittman and Jaylon Redd. With two timeouts remaining and about forty yards separating them and the endzone, there was still hope for the Ducks. 

With 52 seconds left, Johnny Johnson fumbled the ball and it was recovered by the Bears to solidify a 21-17 win.  

“There were a lot of opportunities we left out there tonight,” said Shough. “The plays were designed well, but we got to make some better decisions and avoid turning the ball over.”

The Ducks fall to 3-2 on the season heading into next week’s final season game against Washington. With the Huskies loss on Saturday to Stanford, the Ducks still have a chance to clinch the PAC-12 North with a win.