For the thousands of out-of-state students who will be traveling this fall and winter, buying airline tickets can be rough guesswork that might not result in the best deal. Students flying to the same location may pay completely different prices, based on where or when they bought their tickets.
A new Web site founded by a University of Washington professor hopes to end that, offering accurate predictions of ticket prices to 73 cities in the United States.
“This is ideal for students who fly a lot,” said Farecast Inc. founder Oren Etzioni, a computer science and engineering professor at the University of Washington.
The company, which first launched Farecast.com in July, has been recording data on airline ticket prices for the past three years, Etzioni said. He said the service forms price predictions by analyzing over 100 billion data points and searching for price patterns. The system then forms an algorithm that tells the buyer whether to purchase immediately or wait longer, depending on if the price is predicted to rise or fall over the next seven days.
Etzioni estimated that the Web site’s predictions are roughly 70 percent accurate, sometimes higher.
“It’s definitely not perfect, but it’s pretty darn useful,” Etzioni said. “The weather forecast isn’t perfect either.”
In addition to ticket price predictions, Farecast also offers a list of airlines that offer the best prices. Buyers can’t purchase tickets directly through Farecast, but there are links provided to the airlines’ Web sites where they can be purchased.
“You know when to buy, and you know where to buy,” Etzioni said.
Judy Hummel, a travel agent with Bonaventure Travel, said the nature of airline ticket prices has typically been unpredictable in her 27 years of experience.
“Every day it’s different, and it’s been like that for 20 years,” she said.
Hummel said there are some patterns, however. She said prices typically go up during popular travel times like Christmas, Thanksgiving, spring break and summer.
Etzioni agreed, but said Farecast is still a reliable source for buyers to search out the best deals.
“One of the main things we’ve learned is that it’s not simple,” Etzioni said. “It changes all the time.”
Etzioni said Farecast plans to expand internationally and include cities outside the United States in its database.
“We want to be the best place for people to buy with confidence,” he said.
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BREAKOUTS
How it works:
– Users go to www.farecast.com and enter their trip plans, including the departure and return dates.
– Farecast provides the cheapest prices immediately available for flights to 73 cities across the United States via 12 airlines.
– A database of past prices is used to create an algorithm that determines price patterns and offers a prediction of how rates will change over the next seven days. It also gives buyers tips for when to buy with a percentage of confidence for each prediction.
– To get a prediction, the trip entered must be between two to eight nights round trip, and must be entered within 90 days of the departure.
Popular Spring Break Destinations:
– Orlando
– Los Angeles
– Las Vegas
– Hawaii
– Puerto Rico
Fare predictions for these destinations will be available on Dec. 23, 90 days before the final day of winter term.
Additional Features:
– Side-by-side comparisons of different airlines’ prices to the same destination.
– Graphs that show a route’s price history.
– “Know Where to Travel,” which shows available trips within a certain price range.