Newton’s third law of motion states that for every action, there is an opposite but equal reaction. What I’m wondering right now is if that applies to sports teams who fly high above their expectations, but always seem ready to fail at any given moment.
Yeah, it’s time to catch up with the Mariners.
My, how long ago the beginning of the month seems now. Manager Mike Hargrove decided to step down from the team – which raised the most interesting combination of emotions in a fan base ever, joy and relief for his leaving, but sadness to actually see him go. But who cares? Seattle was riding an eight-game winning streak and were just a pair of games behind the Angels in the AL West and were right near the top of the wild card race.
Let the good times roll, right?
Now, though, the Mariners are in danger of dropping five games in four days and were desperate enough to don the batting practice uniforms for the second game of their double header against the Rangers yesterday. Which begs the question, is Seattle a contender or pretender?
Let’s take a look at the arguments for each side. As the major league season is nearly 100 games in and closing in on the trade deadline – the traditional starting point for the stretch run – Seattle is still just two and a half games back of the Angels in the West, three back of the Indians in the wild card, and still there after losing five in a row and seven of the last ten. It’s still too early to say anybody is out of the race, and if the bats come back alive for Seattle wins could return just as easily.
Plus, nearly two-thirds of the way into the season, is it really time to say a team’s success is a fluke? If this were college football, maybe, after nearly 100 big-league ballgames? I don’t think a team can fluke into that many wins.
Still, though, the Mariners have won without a true starting pitching stud or a ridiculous batter – besides the always-amazing Ichiro, who is still second in the AL in batting average. The team is actually fourth in the AL in batting average, but not doing anything with the men on base – but when they do, the bullpen (third in saves in the AL) can bring the game home. Though they traded Rafael Soriano to the Braves in the offseason, the setup men and the lights-out J.J. Putz still make up the best bullpen in the AL.
Mariners fans have a precedent for being skeptical. See August of 2002 and 2003, when the team imploded and threw away early AL West leads. The last three years have been lessons in futility, with only Ichiro’s single-season hit record chase in 2004 to brighten the time. Safeco Field has routinely been less than half full, the team has routinely been scrapping with the Rangers for rights to the division basement, and the front office and dugout have looked slightly foolish for their buying habits.
That’s what worries me still. Seattle’s not going to splash for a big trade before the deadline, and the only move they can really do is give in to logic (and the great seamhead bloggers at Lookout Landing and USS Mariner) and call up talented outfielder Adam Jones from Triple A to patrol Safeco. As players like Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro have been average or poor, the cries to bring Jones up have grown. I’ve heard it’s been delayed because of the rules regarding guaranteed contracts and some other legalese, but if Jones is a defensive improvement and at least as good offensively as whomever he replaces then I cannot wait for this move to finally happen. Let Ibanez DH, consider Vidro a bad investment, swallow the bitter pill and give the young man a chance.
I’m still holding out hope. Baseball is a weird sport; streaks come and go, and so long as the team doesn’t slide to five or six games back in this next week then they’ll have a chance to bounce back. August and September are full of games against the AL West, and with three more series left against Los Angeles of Anaheim (and a total of eight against the division as a whole) there are plenty of games that matter. If they’re close and have momentum in September, who knows how much farther this team could go. Even if they barely miss the playoffs, at least Seattle has done one thing right: show the first signs of life since 2003, enough to keep Ichiro in Seattle. Even if this year doesn’t prove to be their year, at least hopes will be higher for 2008.