Health care in the United States is built on a faulty system, but it can be fixed if it is restructured and reformed by pressuring the federal government from the state level, former Oregon governor John Kitzhaber told economists and business representatives at Economic Forecast 2007 on Wednesday.
Kitzhaber was the keynote speaker at the event, which was presented by the Eugene Area Chamber of Commerce, the Register-Guard newspaper and the University’s College of Arts and Sciences.
Kitzhaber said the cost of health care is the main driver behind the United States’ $9 trillion national debt. As the cost of health care continues to expand, it will compromise the ability to invest in education, infrastructure and the economy, he said.
“If we cannot control the costs of the system, we haven’t accomplished anything,” Kitzhaber said.
He said the current health care system, including Medicare and Medicaid, is still based on a financing system instituted in the 1950s and 1960s, which has led to rising costs and public money supporting few people.
A better system would be sustainable and ensure everyone has access to health care, he said.
Kitzhaber said his Archimedes Movement is trying to build a consensus over what people want their health care system to look like, and that it had proposed the Oregon Better Health Act, which would give the state more control over health care spending. He said a local effort in Oregon can pressure the federal government to reform the system, as only the federal government can reform the nation’s health care system.
“If we can start here in the state of Oregon, with a shared vision of what this new system will look like and share public resources, and support it with legislation, we could help reform the entire U.S. health care system,” Kitzhaber said.
Economists at the event, which was held at the Eugene Hilton, ended it with predictions of what lies ahead economically for Lane County, for Oregon and for the country in 2007.
Tom Potiowsky, a professor at Portland State University and a former state economist, said Oregon is following the national level in terms of energy and housing costs. While oil and electricity costs are decreasing, he predicted that the housing market would slow down and bottom out by mid-2007, citing how the number of building permits and house appreciation values are decreasing.
Potiowsky said he didn’t foresee there being a recession soon, but economics consultant Bill Conerly predicted that there would be an economic slowdown in the state and nationally in 2007, with housing taking the greatest hit because of a decrease in the number of building permits and a flat market.
The problem is that construction companies built too many houses over the past few years, and the local economy was seeing a high rate of house vacancies, Conerly said.
John Mitchell, an economist for U.S. Bancorp and the principal of M&H Economic Consultants, said the U.S. economy is likely to continue into a seventh year of expansion, with a 3.5 percent increase in the national gross domestic product by the fourth quarter of 2007.
As for the local economy, the health care, retail and trade, hospitality and restaurant industries will experience the strongest growth over 2007, said Brian Rooney, a regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department. He agreed with other economists that the housing market would see losses in 2007, while jobs in the information and financial industries will be flat or decrease.
The unemployment rate in Lane County, which has seldom dropped below 5 percent in good economic times, is low at around 5.1 percent, a decrease from 5.3 percent last year, Rooney said.
“If you’re looking at a new job or looking to switch jobs, now is a good time to do it,” Rooney said.
Overall, each business should carefully follow the trends and come up with plans for possible recessions or economic downturns, Mitchell said.
“Remember, 334 days from today, the first baby boomer starts drawing social security,” Mitchell said.
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Former governor says health care can be fixed
Daily Emerald
January 31, 2007
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