With the Christmas shopping season well underway, businesses are beginning to grow wary of their numbers, and analysts only show a slight increase of sales compared to this time last year, a time when consumers were clobbered by a deepening recession and credit crisis.
“Still, any growth is a welcome relief after such a long and deep recession,” University economist Tim Duy said in the Oregon Business Report.
The University’s Index of Economic Indicators, which Duy writes, rose 0.6 percent to 85.0 from September’s 84.5, suggesting that Oregon’s recession has ended.
The measure of recession probability, developed by University Associate Professor Jeremy Piger, also indicates that the probability of a recession occurring in Oregon fell below 10 percent likelihood in September and October, concluding that August was the last month of economic recession.
Nationally, retailers posted a 0.5 percent increase in sales for November, compared with this time last year when sales declined 7.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters, an information company tracking stock exchanges Thomson Reuters also warned most retailers not to expect December sales to rescue the holiday season, as consumers
are faced with tight credit and high unemployment rates.
Mirroring these reports, Eugene retailers have seen slight increases in their holiday sales and expect December to be just as positive.
Buffalo Exchange store manager Kari Pape said her used clothing store is faring well.
“Customers were more scared to buy last year, but people still want good deals,” she said.
Buffalo Exchange — where apparel can be bought, sold or traded — sees its peak in sales during the back-to-school and Halloween seasons, Pape said, but she expects December shopping to reach high marks.
“We are seeing slight increases (in sales) from last year,” Pape said. “We tend to slow down for Christmas time, but we are estimating to be over the mark we had this time
last year.”
Duy’s report found that initial jobless rates rose during October, reversing recent improvements within the state. Duy said that while this is a slight improvement from earlier this year, it still suggests ongoing difficulties for job seekers.
In a report released last Friday, government officials found that 11,000 jobs disappeared and the unemployment rate decreased from 10.2 percent to 10 percent in October, an improvement from the previous month.
As the nation starts to see indications of slow economic improvement, customers will begin to open their wallets for the holiday season and store managers will breathe a little easier, Pape said.
“People were just scared before,” Pape said. “But I think people are starting to feel better about spending and are feeling better about things in general.”
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