Months ago, the nation faced a moral dilemma as vaccines began showing promising results: Should we vaccinate the elderly or the youth first? In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown followed the rest of the nation — protecting the elderly. With the information available at the time, it was the right decision to save the most lives. New research, though, presents a new potential direction, one that saves lives and our institutional future.
It’s essential to understand why Brown decided to protect the elderly. The virus bifurcated the threat: the elderly are the most vulnerable, but younger generations were responsible for its spread. Indeed, when college campuses reopened last fall, there were clear spikes in infection rates throughout the nation. When the first vaccine came out, though, researchers did not know its efficacy in preventing the spread. We knew it could prevent deaths, so the vaccine rollout began with the elderly.
Over two weeks ago, an Israeli study revealed the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was capable of preventing transmission of the virus as well as infection. Not only does the vaccine prevent individuals from contracting the disease and experiencing symptoms, but it prevents individuals from passing the disease to others. While more results are to come, the implications are clear: vaccinating any group protects others.
Of course, we could continue along this path. No one, at least no one with a backbone, believes that the elderly should move down the priority list for the vaccine. However, an alternative pathway might better protect the future of the nation alongside the lives of the elderly.
Israel recently became the nation with the highest vaccination rate for Israelis. (This statistic is under fire for excluding Palestinians, which is a separate issue.) They’ve vaccinated at least 50% of their population with a first dose. Comparisons, of course, are not fruitful considering the population difference. However, despite its smaller size, Israel is struggling to jump start its institutions. Businesses, schools and other day-to-day processes are a shell of what they were despite a bewilderingly fast vaccine campaign.
This should worry us. As a larger nation with programs, resources and more spread across 50 states and 300 million people, our return to normalcy will suffer even more than Israel’s. These institutions, particularly schools, require the presence of younger generations rather than the elderly.
Perhaps, then, it is time to consider prioritizing vaccinating the youth alongside the elderly. Though I am no vaccine expert, promising results on transmission protection means that vaccinating the biggest spreaders of COVID-19, between the ages of 18 to 30, subsequently protects the elderly.
The unveiling of a new pathway presents a new opportunity to protect future institutions. We must consider the ramifications of our education being delayed. Because, there is no denying it, online school is harming the overall quality of our education. Students are struggling more yet learning less. Education is the backbone of the nation; without it, the future of all professions and processes will suffer. If values of education don’t do it for you, just innovation born out of higher education graduates contributed to $591 billion of our nation’s GDP between 1996 and 2015. Without a fast return to proper education, our economy will be damaged for generations.
Indeed, beyond education, students will continue to suffer without a return to normalcy. The pandemic, and the United States’ abysmal planning efforts, have positioned the nation for another recession. One of the demographics that will suffer most is those in universities. Research suggests that those entering the workforce from higher education — if they can even find work — during a recession start with pay about 10% to 15% lower than normal. These losses continue throughout their careers. Not only do students suffer economically, but life outcomes are permanently damaged. Every unemployment increase of 1% causes a one death increase per 10,000 lives. In a paper written by authors at Duke, Harvard and Johns Hopkins, the economic shock of the pandemic will cause 1.37 million more people to die over the next 20 years.
The opportunity cost of stalling a return to normally increases if we continue to ignore these new findings — future lives will suffer instead.
If Brown decides to continue with the same order of vaccine distribution, then so be it. I merely suggest, as a young ignorant undergraduate student, that decisions based on our previous understanding may be outdated and we should consider new research as it becomes available. Protecting the youth is no longer mutually exclusive from protecting the elderly.
For the sake of our future, perhaps the distribution needs to be more flexible. If Israel is struggling to return to normalcy, then we will, too — to a much greater extent. It is our duty to protect lives first. But, if a new program can do that and protect our future simultaneously then we should indeed “listen to the science.”