Oregon’s second round tilt with St. Joseph’s ended at around 10 p.m. Sunday, and it’s likely head coach Dana Altman didn’t even get the chance to leave Spokane Arena until after midnight. After a come-from-behind win secured Altman his second Sweet Sixteen bid as the coach at Oregon, he was also likely in need of some much deserved rest.
However, one quick glance at the scouting report of the Ducks’ next opponent indicated that relaxing would have to wait.
“I’m not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight,” Altman said, according to The Oregonian.
It’s because Oregon’s next date in this NCAA Tournament is with defending national champion Duke, a storied program that has reached 16 Final Fours and won five national championships. While this year’s group does not have the ability that past teams have possessed, they certainly don’t lack talent.
Grayson Allen averages 21.6 points per game and the presence of 7-foot-1 Marshall Plumlee can create plenty of issues in the paint. He exemplified this by posting 10 rebounds and five blocks against Yale in the second round.
In addition, Brandon Ingram and his 7-f00t-3 wingspan may be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. He averages about 17 points and eight rebounds per game. And when these three players are on, wins against one-seeds Virginia and North Carolina occur.
However, Duke’s lack of depth and a true point guard is why it’s become clear that Mike Krzyzewsk doesn’t have a team comparable to last year’s winner. They have just seven players who average over 10 minutes per game and have been prone to letting second half leads fall by the wayside.
The Blue Devils’ 46-19 lead against Yale was cut to three in the final minute of regulation and they blew a 16-point lead to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament a week before.
Regardless, they’ll still pose the greatest threat to ending the Ducks’ tournament run thus far. And they’ve also seen where Oregon may be vulnerable. The Ducks, who hadn’t scored less than 76 points since mid February, had just 51 with five minutes remaining in regulation Sunday. St. Joseph’s held the Ducks to just 39.6 percent shooting and also, despite being undersized, out-rebounded them. Size will be an advantage for Duke in this one.
In addition, Duke’s depth may not be much of a problem, considering the Ducks only played seven players Sunday.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. PT Thursday. Oregon opened as a two-point favorite, according to Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Oregon wins if: It maintains a presence in the paint while also displaying its advantage when it comes to versatility and athleticism. Then, if that can carry over into a sustainable night on the offensive end, Oregon can reach the Elite Eight.
Duke wins if: It shoots 3-pointers at a high percentage and defends the way St. Joseph’s did. The team has the shooters capable to make a mark from outside the perimeter and has shown the ability to defend well in spurts. If it can pair the two together, they’ll be a hard team to beat.
Notes:
— Oregon is 25-0 when leading at the half.
— Oregon is 20-0 when holding opponents under 70 points.
— Oregon is 6-3 when committing more turnovers than its opponents.
— This is the fifth time Oregon has reached the Sweet Sixteen.
This post will be updated.
Follow Justin Wise on Twitter @JustinFWise
Game preview: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4 Duke
Justin Wise
March 21, 2016
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