Support for Measure 28 is at an all-time high and, according to polls, the three-year temporary tax increase could pass come Jan. 28.
When Oregon’s Legislature referred the $724 million bill to voters after the fifth special session of 2002, many speculated it would not garner support and most political analysts questioned whether Oregon voters would bear an income tax increase during a statewide recession.
But according to a poll conducted by the University for The Register-Guard, 46 percent of the 409 surveyed voters said they would support the measure. Thirty-five percent said they would not support the tax increase, and 19 percent of voters remained undecided.
Portland news station KATU conducted a similar survey, which showed an even split on Measure 28. Forty-eight percent of the 402 voters polled indicated they would vote yes, 48 percent said they would vote no, and four percent were undecided.
Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Proponents of the measure are enthused by the upswing in support, while opponents of the tax increase nervously look toward election day. Nonetheless, people on both sides of the issue point to the media as a focal point for increased support.
“It’s really been a full-court press,” said Joel Bloom, a research assistant at the Oregon Survey Research Laboratory, where The Register-Guard study was conducted. “I don’t think the media (are) biased, I think it just makes for a good story.”
Jason D. Williams, executive director of the Taxpayer Association of Oregon, is a bit more critical of the media, however.
“For us, it’s a perfect storm of three components coming together,” Williams said.
Biased media coverage, the possibility of low voter turnout and a lack of funds all have contributed to the rise in support for Measure 28, Williams said.
A few weeks ago, Williams said he would have been surprised by the support represented in the recent polls. But now, Williams simply calls the situations “immensely discouraging.”
Williams said the media have been focusing on the cuts associated with the failure of Measure 28 without looking at what the state is trying to accomplish. With the passage of Measure 28, state spending will increase eight percent, Williams said. With its failure, spending will still increase by five percent, he added.
“A lot of (members of the media) know it,” Williams said. “I guess they just don’t consider it important.”
Neel Pender, executive director of the Democratic Party of Oregon, said he thinks the media’s coverage has been fair and, because of the uncluttered ballot, citizens have been able to focus on the pros and cons of the measure.
“I think (media) certainly played a role” in the upswing, Pender added.
With less than a week remaining and the outcome of the election still in question, fittingly, all eyes will likely turn to the media for any and all updates. And for Associate Professor of Communication Studies Carl Bybee, that’s just how it should be.
“What I see is an incredible public information campaign carried out at a level that’s really unprecedented for Oregon in many, many years,” Bybee said. “I think it’s an exemplary illustration of what the media could, and should, be doing in a matter of public importance.”