On Sept. 2, the College Football Playoff Committee shocked the world. With a unanimous vote, the committee approved the expansion of the College Football Playoff, tripling the fun. The four-team system had been under much criticism for years as it seemed too small and repetitive. Following the ruling, coming in 2026 or possibly sooner, 12 teams from all across the country will have a chance to compete in the postseason for a national championship.
“This is a historic and exciting day for college football,” CFP Board of Managers chairman Mark Keenum said. “More teams, more participation and more excitement are good for our fans, alumni and student athletes.”
Bigger is better. That’s the common phrase. But does this bigger format positively impact all teams? Is it good for Oregon? Well, there are certainly many things to look at.
What exactly is the new format?
Since the introduction of the CFP in 2014, four teams were selected, with no real criteria, to compete in the playoffs. Now, with the 12-team format, there will be a clear-cut path to the playoffs other than just going undefeated.
The first six teams will all be champions… of a conference that is. The top six highest ranked conference winners will automatically be in no matter the record, no matter the rank. This will almost certainly put the Pac-12, Big-10, Big-12, Atlantic Coast Conference and Southeastern Conference champions in the playoffs, along with the highest ranked group-of-five champion.
Here is the clear-cut path for the Ducks: Continue to dominate the Pac-12 and be rewarded with postseason football.
If that doesn’t work, the next six seeds will continue to be determined by the CFP committee, selecting conference runner-ups and “at large” teams. Oregon could sneak in if it should have a solid season without a conference championship to show for it.
The top four ranked conference champions will also earn a first-round bye, providing some extra incentive and emphasis on winning the conference.
Would this have mattered for the Ducks in the past?
Yes. Emphatically, yes.
Oregon, of course, had one appearance in the CFP during a 2014 run that saw the Ducks fall to Ohio State in the National Championship Game.
Had this four-team format always been in play, Oregon would have also made the playoffs as a conference champion in 2019 and been in the discussion for an at-large bid in other years.
Why wait until 2026?
The current television deals and stadium usage of a four-team playoff is set to expire in 2025, with the 12-team expansion beginning the following year. However, many conferences including the Pac-12, are trying to implement the move as soon as 2024.
This makes sense as conferences would love the exposure of having an almost guaranteed slot in the playoff for one of their teams. This only brings in more views, more money and more football.
“The Pac-12 is strongly in favor of CFP expansion and welcomes the decision of the CFP Board,” the conference announced in a release on Sept. 2. “CFP expansion will provide increased access and excitement and is the right thing for our student-athletes and fans. We look forward to working with our fellow conferences to finalize the important elements of an expanded CFP in order to launch as soon as practicable.”
This announcement likely keeps Oregon in the Pac-12 with a ticket to the postseason able to be punched with a conference championship. But Oregon will still have to potentially wait a few years.
The sooner the better for a team like the Ducks, who are finding recent success in the Pac-12.
What does this do for bowl games and conference championships?
Well, conference championship games essentially become play-in games. With a playoff bid on the line, there will be much more at stake for games like the Pac-12 championship.
As for beloved bowl games like the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl, those games would continue to be cycled throughout the CFP and could potentially become a playoff game each season. Either way, they could certainly have more meaning.
Does this change the scheduling?
With more at-large bids and more teams being accepted, the need for perfection goes up. Conference play will remain the same but non-conference games likely become less competitive.
For example, highly anticipated week one matchups like Georgia against Oregon likely become a thing of the past. Neither of these teams need that game, and the loss hurts more than a win helps.
So… is this good for the Ducks?
It appears that, yes, a 12-team playoff is good for most teams. Independent teams miss out on the automatic bid opportunities. But for the other teams, this cuts a clear path to meaningful December football.
And for a school like Oregon, where the conference is winnable and the future is bright, expect to see lots of green and yellow in the expanded CFP in years to come.
