If Oregon needed a miracle to just compete with Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game last weekend, the Ducks will need a miracle and then some to pull off the upset over the West bracket’s No. 1 seed Wisconsin.
Much like Arizona, the Badgers represent the antithesis of Oregon’s program. Wisconsin has a low-post presence, runs a fluid offense with lots of motion, never turns the ball over and rebounds better than nearly every team in the country.
It’s a terrible matchup for Oregon and it’s going to take herculean efforts from Joseph Young, Elgin Cook and Dillon Brooks to keep this game close.

While Oregon might have comparable offensive metrics, Wisconsin owns the nation’s most efficient offense. With a combination of interior and exterior scoring options, the Badgers are No. 16 in the country in effective field goal percentage – all while running fluid, calculated sets that boast the nation’s best turnover rate at 12.5 percent.
Obviously, most of Wisconsin’s gaudy statistics are thanks to the contributions of Frank Kaminsky. The seven-footer shoots 60 percent from the field, can lead the fast break, operate as a ball-handler or a screener in the pick and roll, rebound and play defense. That uncanny versatility has led to 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 blocks per game.
Sam Dekker (13.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Nigel Hayes (12.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) join Kaminsky in the front court. At 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-8, respectively, the two forwards are just as versatile as Kaminsky.
Bronson Koenig (8.5 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Josh Gasser (6.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg) make up the backcourt, with Koenig running the point and Gasser playing shooting guard. Not surprisingly, the two guards are merely role players, as the front court dominates the Badgers’ offensive production. As a result, Gasser owns the nation’s third best offensive rating at 133.7, but is only involved in 10.8 percent of Wisconsin’s possessions.
Wisconsin isn’t nearly as efficient on defense as it is on offense. But, the Badgers still own some of the nation’s best defensive metrics.
The Badgers are 46.9 percent in effective field goal percentage against. They are close to the bottom of the barrel in defensive turnover rate at just 16.5 percent, but are No. 3 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage at 76.4 percent.
Even if Wisconsin allows relatively high field goal percentages, the Badgers don’t allow teams to operate from the perimeter. Teams shoot just 26.5 percent of their field goals from three-point range against the Badgers (34.2 percent is the national average) and can only convert 40.4 percent of assists into field goals (53.1 percent is the national average).
So while Wisconsin is a far cry from being as intimidating as Arizona is on defense, the Badgers are going to force Oregon out of its usual flow on offense.
Oregon’s only chance at keeping up would be a bad day from Wisconsin’s offense. It’s hard enough to expect Jordan Bell to play more than 15 minutes against Josh Scott from Colorado. It’s another thing to expect him to keep Kaminsky, Dekker and Hayes from abusing Oregon’s interior for 40 minutes.
While Joseph Young might put up 25 points against Wisconsin’s lesser backcourt, this game will be won and lost on the boards.
If the Ducks can’t find a way to keep up on the boards, expect this game to look a lot like the Pac-12 Championship.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter
 
 

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NCAA Tournament Four Factors: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Wisconsin