The Four Factors:
• Effective field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
Advanced statistics have doubted Oregon men’s basketball for a while now. The Ducks’ unconventionally small lineup and sporadic defense have doomed them to extremely unfavorable odds when facing the Pac-12’s better teams.
KenPom.com gave Oregon a 20 percent chance to beat Utah at Matthew Knight Arena, then a 22 percent chance to repeat the feat in Las Vegas. But the Ducks scoffed at those probabilities and topped the Utes both times.
Tonight, the Ducks face the unequivocal class of the Pac-12 and No. 1 seeded Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Looking at the numbers, there’s no rational way to explain Oregon winning this game. The Wildcats aren’t just the best in the Pac-12, they’re one of the best teams in the entire country in multiple key statistics.
If the Ducks pull off the upset, it would surely be held as the crown jewel of Joseph Young’s legacy at Oregon.

Just like the semifinal, the Ducks have the offensive metrics that match up with the best teams the country can throw at them. Arizona is far from a fluid offensive team, but still boasts extremely favorable efficiency numbers with extensive advantages in multiple areas.
Both teams have identical effective field goal percentages over Pac-12 play, but the Wildcats limit turnovers, then recover more offensive rebounds and draw more fouls than any team in the conference.
Pac-12 freshman of the year Stanley Johnson leads the way, averaging 14.1 points per game and 6.7 rebounds per game. Forwards Brandon Ashley (12.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg) round out the scoring. Point guard T.J. McConnell (9.7 ppg, 6.4 apg, 2.2 spg) stands in as the team’s distributor as the senior boasts the fifth best assist rate in the country.
While Arizona is virtually impossible to defend when its ball handlers get into the paint, the Wildcats are a mediocre jump-shooting team.
Yesterday, UCLA’s 3-2 zone held Arizona scoreless from the field for over six minutes. Expect Dana Altman to opt for plenty of full-court pressure and zone defenses to attempt to stymie the Wildcats’ slashing forwards.

The biggest gap between the two teams comes on defense. Arizona is the nation’s third best defensive team. The Wildcats have used their size, speed and versatility to lock down numerous high-powered offenses over the course of the season.
Hollis-Jefferson can match up with every single player on Oregon’s roster and has frequently been assigned to his opponents’ top scoring threat, whether it’s a point guard or a power forward.
Joseph Young should anticipate a mix of both Hollis-Jefferson and McConnell defending him throughout the night, so achieving any point total over his season average would be nothing short of a memorable feat.
Oregon is going to have to look for big contributions from other parts of its lineup. Dillon Brooks and Elgin Cook need to turn in the performances of their careers as they’ll be matched up with either Johnson and Ashley, who are weaker defenders, but are still two of the better defensive players in the Pac-12.
It’s virtually impossible to expect Oregon’s offense to operate anywhere close to its typical rate against the Wildcats. Young is the only Duck capable of manufacturing a shot against Arizona’s defense and it will require nothing short of a herculean effort from the Pac-12 Player of the Year to complete the upset.
Does Young have another miracle in him? The Ducks might need one to beat Arizona and win the Pac-12 tournament.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twitter @joshschlichter

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Pac-12 Tournament Four Factors: Oregon vs. Arizona