The Four Factors:
• Field goal percentage (eFG): Regular field goal percentage with additional weight given to three-pointers
• Turnover rate (TOV): Measurement of ball security
• Rebounding percentage (Reb): Percentage of the possible rebounds an offense or defense collects
• Free throw rate (FTR): Rate at which a team gets to the foul line, or fouls the opposing team
Oregon men’s basketball is honing in on an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, but needs a few more big wins to have a chance at bursting the bubble on Selection Sunday. The Ducks (18-7, 8-4) slid past USC on Wednesday and look to rack up a “quality win” against UCLA (15-10, 7-5) on Saturday.
Three weeks ago, UCLA lost to Oregon State 66-55 in a sloppy performance on both ends of the floor. A few days later, the Ducks scorched UCLA with a 75 percent shooting mark in the first half and coasted to an easy victory.
This past Wednesday, the Bruins dominated Oregon State 75-59 at Pauley Pavilion, marking a 27-point difference between the two teams’ matchup in Oregon and their game in Los Angeles. This time, Oregon State was the sloppy team with limited options on offense and a lackadaisical zone defense.
It’s easy to see that UCLA is a different team when it plays at home. The Bruins beat No. 11 Utah handily on their home court, despite getting blasted by the Utes in Salt Lake City.
If Oregon wants to find a way to beat the Bruins at Pauley, they’ll need to muster an offensive performance like their first matchup.

As it has been all year long, Oregon’s high expected field goal percentage is the Ducks’ biggest weapon on the offensive side of the floor. The Bruins have advantages in every other factor on offense however, as the Bruins have one of the more dangerous teams in the conference.
At their best, UCLA can score from all over the court. Bryce Alford has been a workhorse, Norman Powell has filled his role as the team’s primary scorer, while Tony Parker and Kevon Looney have been dominating teams all year long. Even 7-footer Thomas Welsh has been hitting his stride as of late off the bench.
When the Bruins are in Pauley Pavilion and play unselfishly on offense, they are the Pac-12’s second best unit. If UCLA keeps up its momentum on offense and gets Parker and Looney some touches in the paint, Oregon won’t be able to stop them.
Oregon’s offense should, however, have success as well. Joseph Young has been playing like his time in competitive basketball is running out, Dwayne Benjamin has hit his stride, while Elgin Cook and Jalil Abdul-Bassit continue to be solid producers on offense. 75 percent shooting might be a bit too much to ask for, but Oregon might need to put together a similar run to beat the Bruins on Saturday.

UCLA made Oregon State’s offense spin its wheels deeper into the mud. The Beavers couldn’t find a clean look and were forced to drain the shot clock down and force a shot up as the possession ended. However, it was apparent that the Beavers don’t have anything close to a dominant scorer. Gary Payton II is talented enough, but wasn’t effective against the longer, more athletic Bruins.
Taking a look at the Four Factors, UCLA’s defense is just as porous as Oregon’s, but is more effective by comparison. The Bruins allow a high expected field goal percentage, but cause more turnovers, corral more misses and foul less often.
Overall, the Ducks are behind the eight ball statistically. UCLA is a completely different team when it plays at home and, outside of its narrow loss to Cal, has been playing the best basketball of its season recently.
Oregon is 12-0 this season when it holds its opponents under 69 points, so expect its effort on defense to be a good barometer for the Ducks’ chances on Saturday.
Follow Josh Schlichter on Twiter @joshschlichter