Can Oregon run the table, finish the season undefeated and end up with a shot at the national championship?
One-third of that question might sound stupid if Oregon lost to Oklahoma last Saturday, but because of the publication schedule, this article was written prior to the game.
The Ducks answered the first two tests, opening the season by walloping Stanford and outdueling Fresno State in a hostile road environment one week later. After facing a questionable but quick Oklahoma squad last Saturday, Oregon can go in two directions.
If the Ducks lost to the Sooners, Oregon has a bye week before two conference road games will truly decide its destiny. The Ducks handily slapped around Stanford and Arizona State on the road in back-to-back weeks after losing to top-ranked USC last season, a scenario that will have to be repeated to salvage a top-10 season.
Every Oregon coach and player said that they would take the season one game at a time, but every fan knew that there were two seasons: The first half and the second half of the schedule.
The first half of the schedule is brutal with road games against high-scoring offenses and loud crowds, much like the atmosphere produced at Autzen Stadium. The home matchups weren’t much easier, with the only edge for Oregon being that the games are in Eugene. Then, after a home game against UCLA wraps up the first half of the schedule, the Ducks can take a small breath.
Oregon travels to Pullman, Wash., to play Washington State. The Cougars can put up offense and no team prefers to play in the Palouse, but the Ducks are a better team and should prove that by not allowing the Cougars to hang around late in the game.
A road game at USC three weeks later will be the most difficult game Oregon faces in the second half of the schedule, which concludes with Oregon playing in Corvallis, where the Ducks haven’t won since 1996. As much as Beaver fans think that Oregon State has a chance, it doesn’t.
Here the Ducks are: Either undefeated with a week to hopefully heal injuries or with one loss and in gut-check mode. The season isn’t lost, but it could be if Oregon doesn’t handle the next two weeks well.
After taking a week to heal, Oregon will hit the road to face a dangerous Arizona State team. The Sun Devils will likely have revenge on their minds and the high-powered arm of quarterback Rudy Carpenter will be dangerous for Oregon’s questionable cornerbacks. If Oregon can escape with a victory, it will head to California the following week on a mission. However, if the Ducks lose at Arizona State, that mission will be heightened and intensified.
Arizona State and Cal are deadly on offense and were picked ahead of Oregon in the preseason Pac-10 media poll. Both were questionable in their season-openers, but impressive in the second half of the second game.
That two-game stretch is the most important of any two games during the season and whether or not Oregon lost to Oklahoma, those two games will decide which bowl the Ducks will play in.
If Oregon can win both, the momentum can carry the team to victories each week to close the season. If the Ducks split, they will have a small chance at making it into the Bowl Championship Series (unless they lost to Oklahoma). If Oregon is swept, I’d recommend booking tickets to the Sun Bowl.
This year’s team is very talented, but without a lot of senior leadership, momentum is the most important factor each week. I do not doubt that Oregon can play for a national title or earn a trip to the BCS this season, but first the Ducks must get past the Sun Devils.
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