With the 2008 presidential election more than a year away, the race appears to be in full swing. Reading newspapers and watching televised debates, it is easy to forget the race is just beginning.
Although this is an earlier start than normal, high-profile candidates get involved earlier each election, and many have been “testing the waters” for years, political science professor Eric McGhee said.
McGhee said several factors contribute to the early start of campaigns, including the fact that for the first time in decades, no sitting president or vice president will be running for office, and this rare open field gives candidates from both parties a shot at winning their party nomination.
“That makes for a very wide-open race,” he said. “There’s no 500-pound gorilla in the room.”
Another huge factor is how the ability to raise the most money is essential to capturing the presidency. The push to raise more money for each election is happening all across the political spectrum and candidates have to spend extra time fundraising to prove they are viable candidates, McGhee said.
“Every year everyone tries to out-raise the last batch of candidates and scare the last batch away, and every year they seem to do it,” he said.
McGhee said a third reason the race has started early is the re-scheduling of primary elections in several states. Some of the biggest states have moved their primaries from March to early February, causing candidates to start preparing earlier, McGhee said. Officials in Florida recently announced its primary will be Jan. 29.
Because several big states will be holding primaries on the same day instead of having them spread out over several weeks, candidates will not have much time to recover from poor showings in the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses, McGhee said.
“It’s really creating a whole new dynamic where you have a handful of small states that are going to have early primaries or caucuses, and then you’re going to have this massive quasi-national primary not too long after that,” he said.
In a normal election, primaries “trickle along” throughout February, giving candidates time to appeal to individual states.
McGhee said candidates work hard in the build-up to the primaries because the system really matters, whereas in the past, it was mostly “for show.”
As recently as 1968, each party announced its candidate for president at the party’s national convention, he said. “Party elites” came together at the convention, talked things over and then made the final decision over who got the nomination.
Now, McGhee said, there really isn’t anyone to “make that judgment call” about which candidates are viable, making primary outcomes more important.
“Now it’s essentially the media who decides who’s a credible candidate and who’s not,” he said. “It doesn’t really matter that Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the rest of the country because it’s all the media has to go on.”
College Democrats President Ben Lenet said he is pleased with the field of Democratic candidates because there is more than one viable candidate to choose from.
“There are a handful of candidates that would make great nominees as well as a great president,” he said.
Lenet said while he has to remain unbiased and can not say which candidate is his favorite, he is looking for someone who can “bring the country back together.”
University senior Jacob Daniels, a self-described Republican and political science major, said his favorite Republican candidate is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Daniels said he is impressed by Romney because he is well-educated and had a great deal of success in the business world before entering the political scene.
“I’ve always liked candidates who aren’t professional politicians, but rather have distinguished themselves in the private sector and thus are going to bring those skills to the public sector,” Daniels said.
Daniels also said he wants a candidate who can bridge political divides and said Romney can do that because he is a conservative who was able to govern a historically liberal state.
“Whether you’re a Republican or Democrat, there’s not a leader who can really take both viewpoints and bring them together,” Daniels said. “I think Mitt Romney can bring together those different viewpoints in the country.”
Certain candidates appear to be front-runners because the media talk about them the most, McGhee said. When the media decide a candidate is a “hot commodity,” that candidate must live up those expectations in order to succeed, he said.
McGhee said every candidate has something to overcome in order to gain the nomination. The “big story” on the Republican side, McGhee said, is the party isn’t really happy with any of the candidates.
He said while John McCain and Rudy Giuliani appear to be doing well, McCain has low approval ratings because he continues to defend the war and Giuliani will have to overcome his history of taking “liberal positions” while he was Governor of New York.
Daniels said he thinks McCain is another candidate who can bridge both sides of the political divide, but doesn’t think McCain can win the nomination.
“I think McCain also offers that type of new direction for the country,” Daniels said. “I think if he could win the nomination, he’d be a strong general election candidate, but that’s not going to happen.”
McGhee said the Democratic candidates may seem to be getting more attention because the interaction between candidates is interesting.
“There’s this dynamic between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that creates a lot of fireworks,” he said. “Obama is such a darling of everything and has created such a sensation coming out of nowhere to be challenging Hillary Clinton of all people. There’s a certain sexiness to it that doesn’t exist on the Republican side.”
Lenet said in order for the Democratic candidate to win the election, he or she must speak out about party values and be clear about where they stand on issues such as the war, health care and the environment.
McGhee said he thinks people respond to Obama because they feel he can “bridge divides” and keep racial issues from dividing the party. Obama has also taken the “most-favorable position” in terms of opposing the war from the start, McGhee said.
John Edwards originally voted in favor of war bills but has since said those votes were a mistake, something Hillary Clinton, who also voted for war bills, has not done. McGhee said this could hurt Clinton and she needs to find a way to win in spite of her position on the war.
However, McGhee said he thinks Clinton could have a strong appeal to the middle-of-the-road voters. He said he thinks Clinton is “in the best position” on the Democratic side and McCain is probably the most likely Republican candidate because of Giuliani’s “liberal” record.
Daniels said he expects Clinton to win the Democratic nomination – something he said would be the “best-case-scenario” for the Republican candidate.
Lenet said he thinks voters in the center of the spectrum tend to agree with the Democratic party on many issues. He said recent polls show 70 percent of the country feel the “war is going in the wrong direction.”
“The middle ground agrees with the Democratic party,” Lenet said. “We have to make sure we’re putting out a platform that works for everyone.”
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Primary vs. Caucus: What’s the difference?
Primary: Every registered voter can participate in his or her party’s primary election. Political Science Professor Eric McGhee said primaries attract habitual voters.
Caucus: A caucus is a more “social setting,” McGhee said. In Iowa, members of the party come together and decide as a group which candidate to vote for. McGhee said caucuses cater more to “activists” in the party – people who are reall
y involved and are more interested in who gets the nomination.