Next Saturday, the Ducks will take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for their first ever Big Ten Championship Game. That much is certain. Everything after that remains up in the air, and is highly dependent on the outcome of that championship game.
If you’re looking into travel plans and buying tickets, it’s important to know the possible paths that Oregon football could take as it searches for its first national title in program history. If there was ever a season for the Ducks to pull it off, this is it, but they have a lot of work and talented programs in their way.
Scenario 1: Oregon wins out
If the Ducks beat both Washington this weekend and whoever they face in the Big Ten title game (which is more-than-likely going to be a rematch with No. 2 Ohio State), they will enter the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 overall seed and receive a first-round bye.
As the No. 1 seed, Oregon would get its choice in second-round location among the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl and Sugar Bowl. As the Rose Bowl is in Pasadena, California, it’s expected that Oregon selects that game. This would mean the Ducks won’t play until Jan. 1 of 2025. Oregon would have nearly an entire month off to prepare for a game against either the No. 8 or No. 9 seed.
With a win, the Ducks would advance to the semifinal round, which takes place on either Jan. 9 or Jan. 10 in the Orange Bowl or the Cotton Bowl. Another win puts Oregon in the National Championship Game in Atlanta on Jan. 20 for all the marbles.
Scenario 2: Oregon beats UW and loses Big Ten Championship Game
The Ducks would finish 12-1, but be ineligible for a first-round bye. Depending on the severity of the loss in Indianapolis, Oregon would likely be slated as the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff. This would set the Ducks up for a first-round home game at Autzen Stadium on either Dec. 20 or 21. Oregon would play the No. 12 seed — which is looking likely to be either the Big 12 Champion or the lowest-ranked team to receive an at-large bid to the playoff party.
With a win, the Ducks would move on to play the No. 4 seed (likely the Boise State Broncos) at one of the second-round locations. With another win, Oregon would likely face the No. 1 seed in the semifinal before moving on to the National Championship Game in Atlanta.
A loss in the Big Ten Championship could be detrimental as it would severely hinder Oregon’s rest time, and set the Ducks up to have to play five postseason games (including the Big Ten Championship) to be crowned champions.
Scenario 3: Oregon loses to UW but wins Big Ten Championship
In this unlikely situation, the Ducks would still receive a first-round bye, but may not be the one seed. They would get to choose their second-round game second (and likely would still select the Rose Bowl) and play the winner of the No. 7 vs No. 10 game before likely playing the No. 3 seed in the semifinals.
Scenario 4: Oregon loses out
Let’s not give this one too much thought. But, if this happens, the Ducks would likely make the playoff, but have to go on the road in the first round and be potential underdogs the whole way through the College Football Playoff.
