The housing market in Lane County may be at risk, according to a recent analysis from the climate analytics firm, First Street. The analysis suggests that rising wildfire and flood risks might have a major effect on insurance premiums and home prices in the years to come.
According to the Property Prices in Peril report, 38.5% of properties in Lane County currently face flooding risks, a number projected to climb to 41.3% within the next 30 years. Property threatened by potential wildfires is even more pervasive, with an estimated 111,762 properties currently vulnerable — a figure expected to rise to 125,939 by 2055, which would amount to 80% of all properties in the county.
These increasing climate threats could have serious economic consequences for Lane County residents.
It is possible that as buyers seek to avoid potential risks, the value of homes in high-risk locations may decrease. According to the analysis, if risk-based pricing is fully implemented, insurance rates will increase by 29.4%, according to Property Prices in Peril report making homeownership more costly. This may make it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market due to rising insurance premiums and concerns about property depreciation.
“Looking at the report it definitely brings up the idea of relocating,” Lane County resident Craig Olson said. “In the past, issues like climate haven’t been a huge concern, but the more talk I hear, the more I start to be concerned,” Olson said.
Despite these concerns, the Lane County housing market remains active. Recent data from the report shows that median list prices have risen, and the number of available listings has increased. Additionally, Eugene’s market competition index has seen a steady climb, indicating continued demand for housing in the area. However, as this report is still new, concerns from some homeowners and renters are starting to rise.
“If I wasn’t already planning on moving I feel like this would be a big concern for me,” Coos Bay resident Jamie Gatewood said. “If you look at what has been happening with the fires in (Los Angeles) and the issues with what insurance was and was not able to cover for those victims, it doesn’t give me much faith for if something like that were to happen here.”
Although the real estate market in Lane County is currently doing well, firefighters and insurance companies advise that prior planning is crucial. The long-term impacts of rising climate hazards may be lessened with investments in fire-resistant infrastructure, revised zoning regulations and homeowner education on climate resilience.
