This season’s Civil War is truly history in the making, matching two nationally-ranked teams for just the second time in the 112-year history of the rivalry.
Last time, in the culmination of the 2000 season, the Beavers stood between the Ducks and a conference title.
The Beavers won that game 23-13 and went on to defeat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon was relegated to the Holiday Bowl, where it defeated the No. 12 Texas Longhorns 35-30.
This year the shoe is on the other foot, as the Ducks stand as the Beavers’ last hurdle to a conference title and a Rose Bowl berth. Unlike Oregon in 2000, the bowl scenarios have the Beavers falling all the way to the Sun or Las Vegas Bowl, should the Ducks pull off the upset. Oregon wouldn’t gain a BCS berth like the Beavers’ did with their win back in 2000, but it would be eligible for the Holiday Bowl and an attractive matchup with a Big-12 team in San Diego on December 30.
Oregon State is a three-point favorite in early betting lines, and rightfully so, as the Ducks haven’t won in Reser Stadium since 1996.
And that’s precisely why I like the Ducks to win this game. Oregon has shown the propensity to rest on its laurels come Novembers of recent memory, expecting lower-ranked, less successful teams to just roll over in front of the big green machine.
That hasn’t happened, and late-season swoons have become message board fodder for Beaver fans everywhere.
As the underdogs and after everything this squad has been through this season, this Oregon team has reason to be fired up and reason to be hungry, even if a BCS bowl is out of their reach.
Yes, Oregon State has a couple of very big reasons to be pumped up for the game as well, but with one big difference.
The Beavers have something to lose, the Ducks do not.
And we all know what happens when a team plays “not to lose” rather than to win. We saw it in the second half of Oregon’s game with Arizona, as the Ducks lacked any aggression, just hoping the clock would run out. Arizona’s last drive against the Beavers on Saturday was another good example: totally lacking aggression, conservative, just hoping the clock would bail them out.
The Ducks should be loose this Saturday, knowing that the only thing at stake is the caliber of Bowl they will go to, with the BCS all but ruled out of possible scenarios. The Beavers, conversely, will be feeling the weight of history, of a fan base whipped into a frenzy by Rose Bowl dreams and the gaze of the entire Pac-10 conference resting on their shoulders.
Who could blame them for coming out a little tight under those circumstances? I certainly won’t.
And all this isn’t to say I think the Ducks jump out early and win big, going away. Not even a proud homer like me is that delusional. I think the Beavers have too much pride and heart to let that happen. They’ve shown us that this year, bouncing back from a 0-2 start, seizing the moment by running the table after upsetting USC, then Saturday’s gut-check win in Arizona.
But the Ducks have shown equal grit and determination this season in the comeback wins at Purdue and over Stanford at Autzen. They have avoided the November doldrums that have plagued the program in recent years by staying focused and showing heart even as they faded from the national picture.
Both teams have given their fans this historic Civil War matchup by virtue of their heart and determination to finish strong. I can’t see a blowout in either direction. I’ve got the Ducks winning by a field goal, 27-24, in a game that I believe will go down in history as one of the greatest Civil Wars ever.
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