Supposed to be caught in a year for rebuilding, Oregon begins the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation conference tournament today trying, instead, to make a run at its first-ever tournament title game and NCAA Tournament bid tomorrow.
The Ducks have never advanced out of the semifinals of the tournament, having reached the semis twice – in 2006 and 2008.
Instead of recoiling after a few early losses, the Ducks, with 16 freshmen, rolled through the season with 11 wins, tying the regular-season record set last season. Picked to finish third by a preseason vote of conference coaches, Oregon finishes the regular season 4-2 in the MPSF, winning a tie-breaker with Cal and Denver for the No. 2 seed.
Three wins in the MPSF tournament, hosted by Stanford in Palo Alto, Calif., and the Ducks will break their single-season victories record and gain an NCAA Tournament berth, the ultimate goal of the program since it was founded in 2004.
A format change won’t affect Oregon’s chance for a title, but will mean a quicker exit for losers.
Unlike the previous four years, when Oregon has used consolation rounds to end every season with a win, losing teams will no longer get that chance. The MPSF decided to move the tournament to a more conventional one-loss-and-you’re-out format to emulate the NCAA Tournament.
Thursday at 1 p.m.: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 Fresno State
If this game has any bit of the déjà vu of the first matchup between the teams, then the Bulldogs (0-13) could be in record-breaking trouble again.
Oregon beat up on first-year program Fresno State 20-0 on March 6, establishing single-game records for points scored and fewest points allowed in Oregon history. It is the only time a Duck team shut out an opponent. In one way, it is the perfect opening-round game for the Ducks, who can likely put the game away early then rest starters for the next day’s game.
The Bulldogs rank last in the league in points scored per game with 3.0, more than 10 points behind the next-worst team, Cal, while Oregon averages 16.7. The Bulldogs have scored only nine goals in conference play while allowing 109 to their opponents, outscored by a margin of 14.8 goals per game. But while the Ducks do lead the Bulldogs in nearly every statistical category, one could come back to hurt them not against the Bulldogs, but in the semifinals or possibly finals. Oregon is the second-worst shooting team in the conference, scoring 179 times on 453 shots for a 39-percent clip. Stanford is the best in the MPSF with 46 percent, while Fresno State is worst at 26 percent.
For Oregon to win: This game should never be less than a five-goal lead by Oregon outside of the first 10 minutes of the game, if that. Scoring quick goals early, as Erin Chisnell did 22 seconds into the first game that set a school record, helps give head coach Jen Larsen flexibility to play younger players or try out a different scheme against a weaker opponent that could be used in the second round game.
For Fresno State to win: Everything must go the right way for Fresno State, which means Oregon goalkeeper Anna Poponyak must play awful and the Oregon defense must break down.
Thursday at 3:30 p.m.: No. 6 St. Mary’s vs. No. 3 California
Cal (6-10, 4-2) has played better than anyone would have expected after a disappointing nonconference record, even though seven of its losses came to teams ranked, including losses to No. 1 Northwestern and No. 3 Syracuse and Pennsylvania. The two teams met on April 1, when the Bears won 22-13 in an easy victory that saw them set a scoring record at the hands of the Gaels (3-12, 1-5). How have the Golden Bears kept a foothold in the top half of the MPSF despite that lack of success in nonconference? On a statistically mediocre team, Cal does shoot the ball better than most, with a 45-percent rate. The Bears used that shooting to knock off a strong Oregon team last weekend 13-12 in three overtimes, proving this team possibly has a steely mettle that belies its record. Goalkeeper Morgan Dyson saved 16 shots, tying a career high, and getting co-MPSF player of the week awards. They don’t score all that often, however, only 9.31 goals per game, second-worst in the conference. Sam Price leads the team with 2.56 points per game and 1 assist per game.
Saint Mary’s doesn’t have a good record, but if nothing else has a dynamic scorer in P.J. Hainley who can take a game over. She is second in the conference with 2.8 goals per game and 3.53 points per game. As one of the Gaels’ few true scorers, she shoots a lot – an MPSF-leading 6.47 shots per game much.
For the Gaels to win: Hainley needs to score often and the defense, which recovers the second-most ground balls in the MPSF per game, must control every opportunity to grab a turnover from Cal while cutting its own from its average of nearly 21 per game.
For the Golden Bears to win: Momentum from its win over Oregon gave it a win over a ranked team this season. The Bears know they can beat teams of that caliber – now it’s up to them to not lose to a team beneath them.
Thursday at 6 p.m.: No. 4 Denver vs. No. 5 UC Davis
Denver went a perfect 5-0 last season in conference play only to lose two games this season, and is looking to win the conference title it believes it should have won last season, when Stanford defeated it in the final. The key parts to that equation last season are all back, which is trouble for Davis, who allowed the Pioneers to score 18 goals on April 12 for the win. Denver is tops in the league in nearly every scoring category, with Ali Flury and Karen Morton scoring 3.23 and 2.75 goals per game, which is the first and third-best totals in the conference. Then there are Steph Coyne and Megan Carver, who add the two best assist marks in the conference per game – usually going to Flury and Morton. The quartet are in the top six in scoring per game in the conference. Add on a defense that allows 11 goals per game, a goal fewer than Davis, and you can see how Denver expected something higher than a fourth seed in the tournament.
For the Pioneers to win: Like Oregon, try to get on Davis early enough to rest some starters, who would play against No. 1 Stanford in the semifinals the next day should DU win.
For the Aggies to win: Still searching to replace top scorer Katie McMahon from last season, the Aggies have Britt Farquharson as their best hope, scoring 2.4 goals per game. They need to play like the team that scored 16, 14 and 15 goals in MPSF wins this season instead of the team that managed six, three and five in losses to Oregon, Stanford and Denver.
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