Earlier this summer, long tenured Pac-12 schools USC and UCLA announced their plans to join the Big 10; sending West Coast college football into a frenzy.
Super conferences appear to be the future of college football with the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 all set to expand over the next five seasons. On the other hand, the Pac-12 is shrinking and so the question must be asked: what happens to the University of Oregon?
The Ducks are one of the more dominant football teams in the Pac-12, and because of this, they have many options and conferences that would be happy to assimilate them. So which offer and which opportunities seem the most intriguing? The following theories and offers are ordered from what looks to be the best option to the worst. Unsurprisingly, there are pros and cons to each, all of which need to be considered in determining the future of college football in Eugene.
REMAIN IN THE PAC-12
Oregon could choose the simple option of staying put in the conference that has included the Ducks since its inception in 1915. But is the easiest option the best, especially with the money decreasing?
PRO: Boasting a 327-298-25 record all-time against the teams set to stay in the Pac-12, Oregon could absolutely become the top dog of the conference. Especially with the program’s recent success winning a conference leading four championships.
CON: The conference will likely be weaker with UCLA and USC departing. The two programs that left are such storied and renowned teams and without the big names in the conference, the Pac-12 could easily slip under the radar of the nation. This would be tough for getting national recognition, especially from the College Football Playoff Committee that already seems to underappreciate the Pac-12. But potentially more importantly, the conference will be bringing in less money. An article from Sports Illustrated reports that with USC and UCLA the conference was expected to bring in nearly $500 million per year, or an average of $42 million per team. That number could drop to as low as $300 million and $30 million per remaining team with the SoCal duo’s departure. The Pac-12 would weaken with respect to talent, money and recognition. Oregon would essentially be forced to go undefeated in order to even have a prayer at a CFP berth.
BOTTOM LINE: Oregon could likely be a dominant force in a much weaker conference. It worked for Clemson. It could work for the Ducks, but if it doesn’t, the Pac-12 could quickly become forgotten. If Oregon senses a clearer path to the College Football Playoff elsewhere, it wouldn’t make sense to stay.
JOIN THE BIG 12
Reports from sources like The Athletic have surfaced that Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State are discussing leaving the Pac-12 to join the Big 12.
PRO: An 18 team conference (assuming the addition of six Pac-12 schools) would be extremely difficult to win. A rigorous schedule filled with opponents from Washington to West Virginia would ensure that the conference champion would be a high-caliber team. It’s also not unreasonable to believe the Big 12 could make its own playoff to crown said champion. Should Oregon be able to find success in the Big 12, it would likely receive national recognition like the program has only seen once before during its 2015 playoff run.
CON: Money. 247Sports reported that the Pac-12 was the third “richest” conference in 2020, bringing in over $533 million dollars. The Big 12 was ranked No. 5, making $409 million, the least amount of any Power Five conference. Regardless of how well Oregon’s football program is currently doing financially and the whole Nike partnership aside, money talks. It could be a huge mistake to go to a less wealthy conference if the Pac-12 is still going to be pulling in money from TV deals, especially if Oregon will have to split those funds with the 17 other teams in this proposed super conference.
BOTTOM LINE: Joining the Big 12 would open new doors for Oregon, but with the severe decrease in income, it may not be worth the move.
FOLLOW USC AND UCLA TO THE BIG 10
Rumors say that the Big 10 is looking to add Oregon and Washington along with the newly acquired UCLA and USC. It’s far more likely that the Big 10 will pursue Notre Dame, which has its own television deal with NBC and therefore doesn’t have to share money. If the Big 10 can’t get Notre Dame to switch, it could start looking at schools like Oregon and Washington.
PRO: Money. The Big 10 was the conference with the most dough in the aforementioned rankings. The Ducks would also increase their views nationwide. The Medium reported that in 2021, three of the top four most watched programs hailed from the Big 10. Oregon ranked 10th in views at 2.57 million but could definitely benefit from more national exposure.
CON: The competition. The Big 10 is good, really good. With the additions of USC and UCLA it only got better. Historically, Oregon has struggled against the Big 10, showing a .397 winning percentage all time against current Big 10 teams, including newly-added USC and UCLA. Oregon would face competition week in and week out in venues that it doesn’t have much success in. The Ducks could quickly sink to the middle of the conference and kill the momentum that it feels the program has been building for years now.
BOTTOM LINE: History would not be on the side of Oregon should it decide to move to the Big 10, but there would be a nice upgrade in cash and exposure. Besides, Oregon is trending up right now, maybe the Ducks could really soar in the Midwest.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE MERGER
This would be an absolute super conference with the size and TV deals to compete with the SEC and Big 10.
PRO: Size. With a conference spanning from Seattle to Miami, East Coast fans would have a vested interest in what happens out in California. The local TV markets would now pull views from three time zones away. Size would bring in money and it’s not unreasonable to think that Oregon would be an upper third team.
CON: Travel. Flying athletes across the country every other week just to keep up with the SEC doesn’t seem overly feasible. There are also rumors that some SEC teams are leaving to join the ACC in the near future so the merger likely wouldn’t last more than a few seasons.
BOTTOM LINE: The East vs West Coast “rivalry” would be cool, but a merger seems like more of a hassle than a solution. This may not be the most realistic long term answer and seems more like a quick fix while the rest of college football potentially moves forward.
Of course, this is all speculation. The only thing that seems certain is that Oregon isn’t going anywhere without a familiar foe: Washington. The two historic rivals have both been pretty adamant that one will not go anywhere without the other. Having a “package deal” similar to the USC-UCLA deal will protect the interests of both schools and keep them on an even playing ground.
So, where do the Ducks fly to? Has the nest in the Pac-12 finally crumbled past the point of repair? While a short term TV deal through 2026 with the Pac-12 seems the most likely right now, it does open up many options for the upcoming seasons of Duck football. So much is unclear in the future of NCAA conferences, but Oregon has options. It comes down to the waiting and the bidding and the powers that be to determine the future of football in Eugene.
